Sweden vs Italy Prediction
🔊 The host nation's first game in the Olympic tournament pits them against one of Europe's and the world's most decorated teams. Sweden, arriving in Italy with an all-NHL roster, are determined to secure their second medal of the 21st century. Can Italy pull off an upset? We break down the Olympic ice hockey tournament matchup and offer a prediction for the February 11 game.
Head-to-Head
📊 Sweden and Italy have faced off six times in the 21st century, with the Scandinavians winning every encounter. Overall, the Italians have never defeated the Swedes in their entire 14-match head-to-head history, managing only two draws back when ties were still possible in hockey games.
H2H Stats Matches and Previous Teams Results
Sweden Team Overview
At the last World Championship, Sweden clinched the bronze medals, only falling to two North American teams along the way-Canada (3-5) during the group stage and USA (2-6) in the semifinals. At the Olympics, the Swedes have missed out on the podium in two consecutive tournaments.
Following their victory over Denmark (6-2) in the third-place match of the 2025 World Championship, Sweden went on to win all six matches of the Euro Hockey Tour. They secured double victories over Czech Republic (3-1 and 5-0), Finland (4-2 and 4-2), and Switzerland (8-3 and 3-2 SO). In their May fixtures in Brno, Sam Hallam's team needs to take at least one game beyond regulation time to claim their eighth European tournament title in history.
Match Results: Sweden
Italy Team Overview
In 2025, the Italians managed to secure a top-two finish in Group A of Division I at the World Championship, earning their return to the top division. So, hockey fans will get to see Italy not only at the Olympic Games but also in the May matches of the World Championship. However, Italy might lack experience against top-tier teams - their last encounter with one of hockey's elite was nearly four years ago, when they lost to Canada (1-6) at the 2022 World Championship.
At the European Nations Cup last autumn, Jukka Jalonen's team, who previously led Finland to Olympic gold, lost half of their matches, including two defeats to Poland. Ahead of the 2026 Olympics, Italy played a friendly match against Germany, losing 3-4 to a German side missing their NHL players.
Match Results: Italy
⚡️ Leaders
For the tournament in Milan, the Swedish national team has brought along only players from the National Hockey League. The standout stars for Sweden include Detroit Red Wings' top scorer Lucas Raymond (60 points, 19 goals and 41 assists) and the leading Swedish goal-scorers in the NHL, Filip Forsberg (24 goals) and Mika Zibanejad (23 goals).
As the Scores24 editorial team highlighted in their hockey preview, Italy is banking on an experienced coaching staff for their home Olympics. The team lacks star players, with one of the brightest being ICE League's top scorer Matthew Bradley (42 points).
🥅 Goalies
In the Swedish squad for the Olympics, as well as for the Minnesota Wild, the competition for the starting goalie position will be between Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt. Both have a save percentage over 90% this season. Gustavsson, who plays more frequently, has a better goals-against average (2.64), while Wallstedt boasts more shutouts (4).
Among the Italian goalies, Davide Fadani of Swiss club Kloten has shown the most consistent performance this season, finishing four out of five games in January with a save percentage above 90%. However, the coaching staff might also consider the more experienced Gianluca Vallini.
🏆 Winter Olympics Performance in the 21st Century
- 2002 (Salt Lake City, USA): Sweden - 5th place, Italy - did not participate
- 2006 (Turin, Italy): Sweden - 1st place, Italy - 11th place
- 2010 (Vancouver, Canada): Sweden - 5th place, Italy - did not participate
- 2014 (Sochi, Russia): Sweden - 2nd place, Italy - did not participate
- 2018 (Pyeongchang, South Korea): Sweden - 5th place, Italy - did not participate
- 2022 (Beijing, China): Sweden - 4th place, Italy - did not participate
Editorial Prediction
Speculating on the outcome of the game may seem disrespectful to the Swedes and overly optimistic for Italy. However, playing in front of their home crowd, Jalonen's team is capable of delivering some goals, as we predicted before the tournament began. Back in 2006 in Turin, Italy managed to score three times against Germany and Switzerland, twice against Canada, and once against the Czech Republic. So why not challenge the Scandinavian defense this time around?
Moreover, in the last two World Championships in Division I Group A, Italy emerged as the highest-scoring team, averaging over 3.5 goals per game. Let's assume Italy is gearing up for the tournament with the same determination as their women's team, who have already secured two victories, and go with Italy's individual total over 0.5 goals.
Betting Tips: Sweden - Italy
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