Toronto vs Ottawa Prediction 3 October 2026
🔊 Toronto’s season is already underway, and their opening two games couldn’t have been more different. The Maple Leafs narrowly lost to Montreal before bouncing back with a home win over the Islanders. Ottawa, meanwhile, are set for their first official game of the campaign-and it’s a big one, as they face their Ontario rivals right out of the gate. The two sides recently met twice in preseason action, with Toronto coming out on top on both occasions.
Toronto come out on top in preseason
📊 Over the long haul, Ottawa have the edge-Senators have claimed six wins in their last ten official head-to-heads, while Maple Leafs have managed four victories. However, the narrative shifted completely in September: Toronto came out on top in both preseason clashes, racking up ten goals across those games. Goals are never in short supply when these teams meet. The average total in their last five official contests sits at 7.2 goals, and the two preseason matchups added another 13 goals to the tally.
Head-to-head statistics Toronto - Ottawa
Two goals proved decisive in the home fixture.
Toronto have already played two official games this season. After a 3-2 defeat to Montreal, the Maple Leafs hosted the Islanders and this time managed to hold on for a narrow 2-1 victory. Both goals for the home side came in the opening period-Colton Sissons opened the scoring, and Easton Cowan converted on the power play. Toronto failed to add to their tally after that, but their early cushion proved enough to secure both points.
The Islanders only clawed their way back into the contest with 5:51 left on the clock, scoring shorthanded. Until then, the Maple Leafs had done well to protect their lead, with Anthony Stolarz turning aside 26 of 27 shots faced. Cowan continues his impressive start to the campaign-he’s already up to three points (a goal and two assists) through two games. Toronto now remain at Scotiabank Arena, looking to carry over the momentum from their latest outing as they take on a fierce rival.
Match Results: Toronto Maple Leafs
The first match will go ahead without Tkachuk in the lineup.
Ottawa are set to begin their regular season later than their opponent, so for now, assessments rely on preseason form and summer roster moves. The headline change is the departure of Brady Tkachuk-last season’s captain has been traded to Florida. In his absence, Tim Stützle led the Senators in goals with 34 last year, followed by Drake Batherson with 33, Dylan Cozens with 28, and Shane Pinto with 23. The offense has also been bolstered by the addition of William Eklund, who put up 53 points for San Jose in the previous campaign.
The preseason itself was a mixed bag for Ottawa. The Senators played five exhibition games, and in their matchups against Montreal, all of their goals came on the power play. They struggled at even strength, a flaw that was especially evident in a heavy 1-6 defeat to Toronto. Now, Travis Green’s side opens the season against the Maple Leafs-the very team they’ve already lost to twice this September.
Match Results: Ottawa Senators
Prediction for the 1st period
Toronto have avoided defeat in the first period in nine of their last ten home games against Ottawa in the NHL. Given this trend, it makes sense to back the Maple Leafs to start strong once again and take them with a 0 handicap to win the first period.
Match Outcome Prediction
Toronto have failed to win in regulation in ten of their last eleven NHL games. That makes the visitors an intriguing option here - Ottawa double chance in regulation (X2).
⭐️ Editorial Prediction
The preseason has already highlighted just how tricky this current Toronto side can be for Ottawa. The Maple Leafs came out on top in both September meetings, first dismantling their rivals 6-1 and then following up with another four-goal performance. On both occasions, the margin was at least two goals. Now, with the regular season underway, Toronto have another edge-they’ve already played two official games.
Both teams have had contrasting starts: Toronto narrowly lost to Montreal by a single goal before bouncing back to defeat the Islanders. Ottawa, meanwhile, are only just about to play their first game of the new campaign. In preseason, the Senators’ defense consistently allowed at least three goals per game, and they conceded six in one of those clashes with the Maple Leafs. Given their head-to-head record from September, it makes sense to back the home side’s attack once again. My pick-Toronto team total over 2.5 goals.
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Betting Tips: Toronto Maple Leafs - Ottawa Senators
in 6 of last 7 games (NHL).
in 11 of last 12 games (NHL).in 7 of last 8 home games (NHL).in 9 of last 10 games (NHL).in 9 of last 10 home games against Ottawa Senators (NHL).in 10 of last 11 games (NHL).
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