AEK vs Aris Prediction 25 May 2026
📢 The decisive clash for a spot in the Greek A1 League semifinals will see AEK Athens go head-to-head with Aris. As expected, the teams that finished fourth and fifth in the regular season have pushed their quarterfinal series to a Game 3 decider. The showdown is set for 25 May at 16:00. AEK Athens enter as favourites, with the odds for each side currently standing at versus . In our prediction, we’ll break down whether the bookmakers’ assessment holds up.
Head-to-Head
📊Statistical breakdown of previous official encounters between AEK Athens and Aris:
- The sides have faced off 52 times;
- AEK, the hosts, have claimed 24 wins (including overtime), while Aris have secured 28 victories;
- On average, AEK put up 74.96 points per game, with Aris close behind at 74.31;
- The average combined total stands at 149.27 points per contest.
In the current quarterfinal series, both clubs have defended their home courts. AEK took Game 1 with an 87-81 win, but Aris responded in Game 2, earning a 90-81 victory to send the series back to Athens.
Head-to-head statistics AEK - Aris
AEK Athens Team Overview
AEK Athens have played 24 games in the regular season, coming away with 16 wins and 8 losses. With a two-thirds win rate, the team secured fourth place and earned home-court advantage for the playoffs.
During the regular season, AEK’s games averaged a combined total of 163.5 points: the squad put up 83.6 points per game while conceding around 79.9 to their opponents. In the playoffs, those numbers have remained largely consistent-AEK are scoring 84.0 points per game and allowing 85.5. On their home floor, they tend to be slightly more productive, averaging 84.4 points scored and conceding 79.5 per contest.
Match Results: AEK Athens
Aris Thessaloniki Team Overview
Aris have played 24 games this season, recording 14 wins and 10 losses. With a 58% win rate, they secured fifth place and landed arguably the most favorable opponent possible for the playoffs.
During the regular season, Aris averaged 84.0 points per game (rising to 85.5 in the playoffs), while conceding 81.3 (84.0 in the postseason). On the road, they tend to play at a slightly higher tempo, putting up 84.7 points per game but allowing an average of 86.5 on defense.
Match Results: Aris Thessaloniki
Prediction for the 1st quarter
Head-to-head meetings:
- Total encounters - 52;
- First quarter wins at home - 10; on the road - 10;
- Average first quarter total: 37.73;
- This season’s home side averages 18.58 points in the opening quarter, while the visitors post 19.15.
First quarter stats: AEK Athens (home) vs Aris (away)
- Games played in the competition: 13 vs 13;
- Wins: 6 (46.15%) vs 4 (30.77%);
- Losses: 5 (38.46%) vs 7 (53.85%);
- Draws: 2 (15.38%) vs 2 (15.38%);
- Average points scored: 20.69 vs 20.85;
- Average points conceded: 20.31 vs 21.38.
Last 10 matches (overall):
- Wins: 4 vs 6;
- Losses: 5 vs 3;
- Draws: 1 vs 1;
- Average first quarter total: 37.7 (scored - 19.1, allowed - 18.6) vs 42.7 (scored - 21.7, allowed - 21).
- The first quarter total has stayed under 41.5 points in 10 of the last 11 head-to-head games between these teams on AEK’s home court (A1 League).
Outcome Prediction
Head-to-head meetings:
- Total encounters - 52;
- Home side wins - 24, away wins - 28.
Stats: AEK Athens vs Aris
- Games played in the tournament: 24 vs 24;
- Wins: 17 (65.38%) vs 15 (57.69%);
- Losses: 9 (34.62%) vs 11 (42.31%);
- Home wins for AEK in the tournament: 9;
- Away wins for Aris in the tournament: 5.
Last 10 games:
- Wins: 5 vs 6;
- Losses: 5 vs 4;
- Home wins for AEK: 3;
- Away wins for Aris: 1.
- Aris have covered the +11.5 spread in 25 consecutive games (A1 League).
- Aris have covered the +11.5 spread in 18 of their last 19 outings.
- Aris have covered the +11.5 spread on the road in 12 straight A1 League games.
- Aris have covered the +11.5 spread away from home in seven consecutive matches.
Total Points Prediction
Head-to-head meetings:
- Average points per game for the home side - 74.96, for the visitors - 74.31;
- Average combined total in head-to-head clashes - 149.27.
Stats: AEK Athens vs Aris
- Average total points in the tournament: 163.46 vs 165.31;
- Average points scored: 83.62 vs 84.04;
- Average points conceded: 79.85 vs 81.27;
- Average points in the first half: 42.35 vs 42.54;
- Average points in the second half: 41.27 vs 39.77;
- AEK Athens average points at home in this tournament - 84.38;
- Aris average points on the road in this tournament - 84.69;
- Last 10 games (average points scored): 79 (home - 83.2) vs 83.7 (away - 82).
- Aris have scored over 75.5 points on the road in five straight head-to-head meetings (A1 League).
⭐ Editorial Prediction
This matchup promises plenty of offense from both sides: these teams routinely combine for over 160 points, and their head-to-head clashes are consistently played at a high tempo. AEK Athens play aggressively at home, but their defensive frailties mean opponents can keep the pace up and rack up the points. Aris approach their road games with energy as well, averaging 84.7 points scored and conceding 86.5 per away fixture.In six of AEK Athens’ last seven home games, the total has surpassed 156.5 points-evidence of their attacking mindset on their own court. Meanwhile, each of the last five head-to-head meetings between these two sides has also seen the total go over this mark. That’s a trend that can’t be overlooked ahead of this decisive playoff clash. Our pick: over 156.5 total points.
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Betting Tips: AEK Athens - Aris Thessaloniki
in 13 of last 15 away games against AEK Athens (A1 Basketball League).in 8 of last 9 home games.in 7 of last 8 games (A1 Basketball League).in 21 of last 22 games against Aris Thessaloniki (A1 Basketball League).in last 14 home games against Aris Thessaloniki (A1 Basketball League).in 10 of last 11 games.in last 6 games (A1 Basketball League).
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