Mercury vs Portland Fire (W) Prediction 16 August 2026
๐ In one of the upcoming WNBA matchups, two teams from the lower half of the Western Conference standings go head-to-head as the Phoenix Mercury host the Portland Fire. Both sides have struggled with consistency this season, making this clash crucial for their hopes of climbing the regular-season rankings. For the hosts, a positive result is vital to avoid falling further behind their closest rivals. Meanwhile, the visitors will look to exploit any weaknesses in Phoenixโs game and strengthen their position closer to mid-table.
Head-to-Head
๐Teams Phoenix Mercury (W) and Portland Fire (W) have only one official match in their history. The contest took place on 06 June 2026 at the venue of Portland Fire (W), ending with the score 72:78.
Head-to-head statistics Mercury - Portland Fire (W)
Phoenix Mercury (W) Team Overview
Phoenix have split their last ten games evenly, recording five wins and five losses. In their most recent outing, they came out on top against the Los Angeles Sparks (94-87), but consistency remains elusive-there have been no extended winning runs during this stretch. On the season, Phoenix are averaging 84.5 points per game while conceding 87.1, underlining persistent defensive issues, even at home.
Over this ten-game span, the defense is giving up an average of 87.8 points per contest, while the offense has shown a slight uptick to 85.3 points per game compared to their season average. The main challenge lies in a lack of continuity on both ends of the floor. DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas anchor the frontcourt, providing relentless work on the boards and fueling quick transitions from defense to attack.
Match Results: Phoenix Mercury (W)
Portland Fire (W) Team Overview
Portland have posted a 4-6 record over their last ten games, but their recent form paints a more optimistic picture: three wins in their last five outings, including a victory in the back end of a short series. The team have noticeably ramped up their attacking play-averaging 86.2 points per game on the season, but recently bumping that number up to 90.9, even as their defensive stats remain high. Over the past ten games, opponents have put up 91.7 points per contest against the Fire, just above their season average of 91.14 allowed.
Road games have proved challenging due to inconsistent defense, yet the trends suggest Portland are capable of keeping games close-even against top-tier opponents. Megan Gustafson and Emily Engstler have emerged as the clubโs leading duo in the frontcourt, while Bridget Carleton and Carla Leite orchestrate ball movement and pace on offense.
Match Results: Portland Fire (W)
Prediction for the 1st quarter
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 1;
- First quarter wins at home for the hosts - 0; for the visitors on the road - 0;
- Average total points in the first quarter: 37;
- Today's home team averages 21, while the visitors average 16.
First Quarter Stats: Phoenix Mercury (W) (home) vs Portland Fire (W) (away)
- Tournament matches played: 16 vs 17;
- Number of wins: 7 (43.75%) vs 5 (29.41%);
- Number of losses: 7 (43.75%) vs 11 (64.71%);
- Number of draws: 2 (12.5%) vs 1 (5.88%).
- Average points scored: 22.5 vs 20.82;
- Average points conceded: 22.56 vs 24.24.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- Number of wins: 4 vs 4;
- Number of losses: 5 vs 6;
- Number of draws: 1 vs 0;
- Average first quarter total: 43.6 (scored - 21.4, conceded - 22.2) vs 47.2 (scored - 23.7, conceded - 23.5).
- Over 41.5 points in the 1st quarter in last 7 Portland Fire (W) games (WNBA).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H:
- average total points per match for the home team - 78, for the away team - 72;
- average total points in H2H matches - 150.
Statistics: Phoenix Mercury (W) vs Portland Fire (W)
- average total in the tournament: 171.7 vs 177.36;
- average total points scored: 84.57 vs 86.22;
- average total points conceded: 87.14 vs 91.14;
- average total points scored in the 1st half: 42.97 vs 41.89;
- average total points scored in the 2nd half: 41.49 vs 43.33;
- Phoenix Mercury (W): average total points scored at home in the tournament - 85.63;
- Portland Fire (W): average total points scored away in the tournament - 85.47;
- last 10 matches (average total points scored): 85.3 (home - 84.5) vs 90.9 (away - 83.75).
- Phoenix Mercury (W) have scored under 92.5 points in last 7 home games (WNBA).
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of matchups - 1;
- number of wins for the home team - 1, for the away team - 0.
Statistics: Phoenix Mercury (W) vs Portland Fire (W)
- number of tournament matches played: 35 vs 34;
- number of wins: 15 (40.54%) vs 14 (38.89%);
- number of losses: 22 (59.46%) vs 22 (61.11%);
- number of wins at home for the home team: 6;
- number of away wins for the away team: 6.
Last 10 matches:
- number of wins: 5 vs 4;
- number of losses: 5 vs 6;
- number of home wins for the home team: 2;
- number of away wins for the away team: 2.
- Portland Fire (W) won with a +5.5 points handicap in last 5 games (WNBA).
โญ Editorโs Prediction
The game is shaping up to be an open contest, with both teams likely to prioritize offense. Both sides have averaged over 84 points per game this season, despite facing their share of challenges. However, Phoenixโs home stats suggest a trend toward lower-scoring affairs: the under has hit in eight of their last nine games on their own court. With that in mind, weโre backing Phoenix Mercuryโs team total under 92.5-a bet that has cashed in each of Mercuryโs previous seven home outings.
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Betting Tips: Phoenix Mercury (W) - Portland Fire (W)
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