Melbourne United vs Melbourne Phoenix Prediction 14 November 2026
🏀 Melbourne United host South East Melbourne Phoenix in another NBL derby. For the home side, this game is a chance to strengthen their position among the leaders and extend their winning run. The visitors are near the bottom of the table and are looking to improve their position to keep their hopes of competing in the second half of the season alive. There is plenty at stake in this rivalry, and games between the teams are often closely fought.
Head-to-Head
📊 The teams have met 36 times in official games. The current home side have 25 wins, while the visitors have 11. Their last game was played on 10 October 2026 at South East Melbourne Phoenix’s home court and ended in a 99:104 defeat for Phoenix.
Head-to-head statistics Melbourne United - Melbourne Phoenix
Melbourne United: flair in attack, chaos in defence
Melbourne United come into the game in good form, with four wins in their last five games and just one defeat. They have six wins and four losses in their last 10 games, showing consistent results. This season, Melbourne United average 97.1 points scored and 90.4 conceded per game.
Over their last 10 games, their scoring average has risen to 101.1 points, while they have conceded 95 per game, suggesting a greater emphasis on attack. They play confidently at home, regularly make their shots and can maintain a high pace. However, their defence often falters, especially against fast opponents, pushing up their average points conceded.
Match Results: Melbourne United
Melbourne Phoenix: focus shifts to attack
South East Melbourne Phoenix are in less convincing form, with just 3 wins and 7 losses in their last 10 games. They have won only 2 of their last 5. They average 98.1 points per game, though that figure has dipped slightly to 96.8 over their last 10 games.
Defensively, South East Melbourne Phoenix allow 92 points per game this season, but that figure has risen to 97.4 over their last 10 games, reflecting some problems with their defensive coordination. Their scoring on the road remains at a decent level, but frequent defensive lapses mean opponents regularly score more than 95 points.
Match Results: South East Melbourne Phoenix
Outcome prediction
South East Melbourne Phoenix have covered the +11.5 handicap in 21 of their last 22 away NBL games. However, they have won only 2 away games this season, so the prediction is based on the handicap, not an away win. We pick South East Melbourne Phoenix +11.5 handicap at odds of 1.51.
Total Points Prediction
The total was under 202.5 points in 7 of Melbourne United’s last 8 home games. In 16 consecutive head-to-head games between these teams at United’s home court, the total did not even exceed 196.5 points. The counterargument is that the total was over 197.5 points in 7 of the Phoenix’s last 8 games; however, those results can still be consistent with the chosen line. We pick Under 202.5 Total Points at odds of 1.53.*
Reliable bet
South East Melbourne Phoenix have covered a (+11.5) handicap away from home in 21 of their last 22 NBL games. The (+12.5) handicap gives the visitors an extra point of leeway: every result that covered (+11.5) also covers this line. We pick South East Melbourne Phoenix (+12.5) handicap at odds of 1.44.*
*Odds are indicative and may vary between bookmakers.
⭐ Editor’s Prediction
A fairly high pace is expected in this derby, as both teams favour attacking basketball and do not always get back on defence in time. Melbourne United are in better form: they have been playing confidently at home and consistently score more than 100 points per game on their own court, while South East Melbourne Phoenix are in a slump and have defensive problems. The total has exceeded 197.5 points in seven of the visitors’ last eight games - the key trend heading into this game. We expect plenty of fast breaks and high scoring from both sides. The pick is Total Points Over 194.5.
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Betting Tips: Melbourne United - South East Melbourne Phoenix
in 8 of last 9 home games against South East Melbourne Phoenix (NBL).
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