Rockets vs Mavericks Prediction 11 October 2026
🏀 On Sunday, Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks will square off for the second time in a row in Macau. The first encounter saw the Rockets cruise to a convincing victory. Now, both teams return to the court, looking to tinker with their lineups and gain valuable game time ahead of the regular season tip-off. For Udoka’s squad, it’s an opportunity to build on the strong impression left after dominating the opening clash. As for Dallas, it’s a chance to bounce back and give more minutes to their key players who sat out the first game.
Head-to-Head
📊The teams last went head-to-head this past Friday at the same venue in Macau, where Houston cruised to a convincing 135-117 victory.
Head-to-head statistics Rockets - Mavericks
Houston are in great shape
The opening game against Dallas on Friday showcased just how deep Houston’s roster really is. Sengun notched a triple-double in just 22 minutes, putting up 16 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists. Eason poured in 20 points, Sheppard added 16, Smith finished with 12, and Durant contributed 15. All this came with Thompson not at full strength (8 points, 7 rebounds) and Adams playing on a minutes restriction. Last season, the Rockets ranked 29th in the league in pace (96.1), but in their first outing in Macau, they played fast and efficiently - largely because Dallas dictated an up-tempo, open game.
Looking ahead to Game Two, the key question is whether Udoka will give Sengun and Durant more minutes, or opt to test his bench again. With a matchup against Oklahoma still to come, it’s likely the coach will once again limit his stars to 15-20 minutes on the floor. In any case, given the preseason setting in China, both teams are expected to continue rotating their lineups. However, the Rockets already appear to have the edge in team chemistry and psychological confidence.
Match Results: Houston Rockets
Dallas: All eyes will be on Irving
Dallas looked exactly like a team missing both their point guard and center in the opener against Houston. Flagg posted 19 points and 6 rebounds, Marshall added 16, and Christie chipped in 14. However, the Mavericks lost the battle on both boards and struggled to contain Houston’s pace in transition. The main storyline for Mavs fans heading into the rematch with their in-state rivals is the potential return of Irving, who hasn’t played since March 2025. Naturally, his comeback is a huge emotional boost for everyone within the Dallas camp. Still, it’s unrealistic to expect him to immediately recapture his 2024 form - even a superstar like Irving can’t miss that much time and return to peak condition after just one game.
Dallas were also without Aldama, Washington, Lively II, Marti, and Sasser in the first meeting. Some of them could be available for Game 2, but key bigs - Lively and Aldama - remain sidelined. It’s worth noting that Dallas played at the league’s fourth-fastest pace last season (101.7). In the opener, the Mavericks managed to impose their tempo on the game, resulting in a high-scoring affair (252 points combined). If Kyrie suits up, expect Dallas to push the tempo even more.
Match Results: Dallas Mavericks
Total Points Prediction
In head-to-head clashes, Houston average 110.8 points per game, while Dallas post 108.9. Notably, the under 231.5 total has landed in eight of the last nine meetings between these sides. With this trend in mind, backing under 231.5 points at odds of 1.77 looks like a well-founded prediction.
Total Prediction
Houston have covered the +4.5 spread in 10 of their last 11 NBA games at home. Although this matchup takes place on a neutral court in Macau, we still recommend backing the Rockets with a +4.5 handicap at odds of 1.38.
⭐ Editor’s Prediction
The Rockets showed in Game 1 that Dallas simply can't match their depth. Sengun, Eason, Sheppard, and Smith - all four are capable of putting up 15+ points on any given night. The Mavericks have three such threats: Flagg, Marshall, and Christie. While Irving’s return adds another option, it doesn’t shift the balance over a full 48 minutes. Houston look like the more complete and balanced side, able to maintain a high tempo throughout the contest. Dallas will once again struggle defensively against the Sengun-Durant duo and the relentless drives from Houston’s supporting cast. We’re backing a Houston win.
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Betting Tips: Houston Rockets - Dallas Mavericks
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