Suns vs Mavericks Prediction 11 February 2026
🔊 In the upcoming NBA matchup, the Phoenix Suns host the Dallas Mavericks. More than half of the regular season is in the books, and the Suns have navigated it better, currently sitting seventh in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have lost their last five games, effectively dashing their hopes of even making the play-in tournament. It seems clear that the Texans are increasingly focused on tanking, as evidenced by their decision to trade away their leader, Davis. However, Jordan Ott's squad has also hit a rough patch recently, securing just two wins in the same span. Can Booker and his teammates live up to their status as favorites with the bookmakers? Let's analyze the matchup and provide a reliable prediction.
Head-to-Head
📊Statistical analysis of previous official games between the teams Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks:
- played 57 matches;
- wins (including extra time): 33 for today's home team and 24 for the guests;
- the home team averages 107.82 points per match, the guests - 106.42;
- average total match points - 214.25.
The last confrontation took place on 13 November 2025 at the venue of Dallas Mavericks and ended with a score of 114:123.
H2H Stats Matches and Previous Teams Results
Phoenix Suns Team Overview
The Phoenix Suns were on the brink of challenging Minnesota for a direct playoff spot (Top 6) but suddenly hit a rough patch, winning only twice in their last five games. This slump occurred even after their star, Devin Booker, returned from injury. The team's scoring has significantly dropped, placing them among the bottom ten in offensive ratings (113.6, 23rd).
However, the Suns' defense remains impressive, ranking in the top five (111.4 points). These defensive skills didn't help Phoenix in their recent clash with Philadelphia (103-109), where their offensive struggles were once again evident. Brooks stood out with 28 points, while Booker struggled, hitting just 5 of 12 shots from the field. The Suns urgently need to regain their form; otherwise, their hopes of securing a top-six finish could slip away.
Match Results: Phoenix Suns
Dallas Mavericks Team Overview
The Dallas Mavericks are going through tough times, with five consecutive losses impacting their overall form and player confidence. Their most recent game against San Antonio also ended in defeat (125-138), increasing the pressure on the team ahead of their matchup with Phoenix. Averaging 114.2 points per game, which ranks 21st, falls below preseason expectations. Following the recent trade of star center Davis, it seems that both management and players are just hoping to get through this season as quickly as possible.
In the aforementioned clash with their state rivals, the Spurs, there was no real contest. The Mavericks were trailing from the start, at times falling behind by more than 20 points. Fans' hopes for a successful rebuild process rest on the young rookie Flagg and the hopeful return of Irving after a severe injury (he hasn't played for a year). Currently, Dallas sits in 12th place in the standings, with any thoughts of a play-in spot far from consideration.
Match Results: Dallas Mavericks
Prediction for the 1st quarter
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 57;
- First quarter wins at home for the hosts - 13; for the visitors on the road - 11;
- Average total points in the first quarter: 54.21;
- Today's home team averages 27.12, while the visitors average 27.09.
First Quarter Stats: Phoenix Suns (home) vs Dallas Mavericks (away)
- Tournament matches played: 28 vs 24;
- Number of wins: 15 (53.57%) vs 6 (25%);
- Number of losses: 13 (46.43%) vs 17 (70.83%);
- Number of draws: 0 (0%) vs 1 (4.17%).
- Average points scored: 27.5 vs 28.46;
- Average points conceded: 26.5 vs 32.13.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- Number of wins: 4 vs 2;
- Number of losses: 6 vs 8;
- Number of draws: 0 vs 0;
- Average first quarter total: 55.7 (scored - 26.9, conceded - 28.8) vs 61.7 (scored - 29.8, conceded - 31.9).
- Phoenix Suns scored under 32.5 points in the 1st quarter in 16 of last 18 games against Dallas Mavericks (NBA).
- Phoenix Suns scored under 32.5 points in the 1st quarter in last 8 home games against Dallas Mavericks (NBA).
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- Number of encounters - 57;
- Home team wins - 33, away team wins - 24.
- Dallas Mavericks won with a +12.5 points handicap in last 6 away games against Phoenix Suns (NBA).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H:
- average total points per match for the home team - 107.82, for the away team - 106.42;
- average total points in H2H matches - 214.25.
Statistics: Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks
- average total in the tournament: 224.63 vs 230.27;
- average total points scored: 113.63 vs 114.2;
- average total points conceded: 111 vs 116.07;
- average total points scored in the 1st half: 58.05 vs 56.54;
- average total points scored in the 2nd half: 55.21 vs 56.89;
- Phoenix Suns: average total points scored at home in the tournament - 113.21;
- Dallas Mavericks: average total points scored away in the tournament - 112.79;
- last 10 matches (average total points scored): 109 (home - 105.86) vs 116.6 (away - 115.33).
- Over 217.5 points scored in 14 of last 16 Dallas Mavericks away games (NBA).
- Over 217.5 points scored in 7 of last 8 Dallas Mavericks games (NBA).
⭐ Editorial Prediction
We believe the hosts will aim to control the tempo with quick transitions from defense to offense, while the visitors will try to stabilize the game through slow ball movement and solid paint protection. With the loss of Davis, the Mavericks understand that relying heavily on defense is no longer a viable strategy, so they will focus on creating more offensive plays. As demonstrated in their matchup against San Antonio, they're quite capable of this. We expect Kidd's squad to score plenty against the Suns, especially considering Phoenix's decreased defensive intensity. We'll go with over 223.5 total points.
Betting Tips: Phoenix Suns - Dallas Mavericks
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Other predictions
