Italy (W) vs Australia (W) Prediction 9 September 2026
🏀 The final Round of 16 clash at the Women's World Cup will see Italy take on Australia. The Green Continent’s squad have shown steady improvement in their performances, while the Europeans, by contrast, have experienced a noticeable dip in form. Given Australia’s greater experience and skill, Italy are likely to face a tough challenge here. The bookmakers’ odds reflect this outlook.
Head-to-Head
📊 The last time these two national teams faced each other was a decade ago, so referencing the outcome of that match holds little relevance for this clash.
Head-to-head statistics Italy (W) - Australia (W)
Italy (W) Team Overview
Italy secured their playoff spot thanks to a first-round win over the Czech Republic, but have struggled to build on that early success. To be fair, one of their opponents was the world’s top-ranked team, USA, and Capobianco’s side nearly pulled off a stunning upset before falling 52-55. The final group match against China was a dead rubber, but their lackluster performance in a 51-71 defeat still raised eyebrows. The Italians simply had no answer for the dominant Han Xu, who controlled the boards throughout. Facing Australia, the Azzurre are in for another tough test - they lack both the size and bench depth of their opponents. Italy often struggle against aggressive, physically imposing teams, losing the rebounding battle and committing more turnovers under pressure. Offensively, they are heavily reliant on Zandalasini; if she’s shut down, their attack can grind to a halt.
Match Results: Italy (W)
Australia (W) Team Overview
Australia are one of the most athletic and physically imposing teams in the tournament. Their primary focus is on aggressive frontcourt play, dominating the boards on both ends, and maintaining a tight defensive wall. Under Brondello's guidance, they have consistently ranked among the top five teams in global women's basketball in recent years. With elite frontcourt talent, Australia enjoy a significant advantage in the paint, while their reliable perimeter shooters force opponents to stretch their defense. Although their group stage performance fell short of expectations - most notably in a high-profile loss to Belgium by a wide margin (68-80) - it's important to remember that Belgium are the reigning European champions, while Italy lack both comparable strength and star power, especially with no one approaching Meesseman's caliber. Australia's edge in size and physicality is likely to force Italy into frequent fouls and concede plenty of points from the free-throw line.
Match Results: Australia (W)
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Australia enter this matchup as clear favourites thanks to their superior roster depth, overall quality, and physical dominance in the paint. Italy can keep things close in the first half with their tactical discipline, but the difference in class - and the fatigue of veteran leader Zandalasini - are likely to show as the game wears on. Italy will try to slow things down and force a half-court battle, but if Australia manage to push the tempo and turn it into a fast-paced shootout, the margin could quickly grow into double digits. Italy’s offense relies too heavily on Zandalasini, which could prove costly against such a powerful and tactically versatile opponent. The smart pick here is Australia to win with a -5.5 handicap.
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Betting Tips: Italy (W) - Australia (W)
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