Италия vs Lithuania Prediction 5 July 2026
🏀 In one of Sunday's World Cup qualification clashes, Italy are set to face off against Lithuania. Both of these European powerhouses have already secured their spots in the second round, but top spot in Group D is still up for grabs. The Azzurri currently lead the standings, but a win for the visitors would see the table reshuffled. Bookmakers have installed the Baltic side as favourites heading into this matchup. Let's see how things unfold on the court.
Head-to-Head
📊Statistical analysis of previous official games between the teams Italy and Lithuania:
- played 10 matches;
- wins (including extra time): 3 for today's home team and 7 for the guests;
- the home team averages 76.6 points per match, the guests - 81.5;
- average total match points - 158.1.
The last confrontation took place on 30 November 2025 at the venue of Lithuania and ended with a score of 81:82.
Head-to-head statistics Италия - Lithuania
Italy Team Overview
Italy head into this clash riding an impressive run of form, having picked up four wins in their last five World Cup qualifying fixtures. Their latest triumph came against Iceland, who they convincingly avenged (102:83) for their only defeat in this campaign. While head coach Luca Banchi is currently away for personal reasons, his assistant Romandino has taken the reins for the national team.
Despite missing several key players, Italy have maintained their cohesion on the court, producing high-quality offensive basketball thanks to the strong chemistry within their newly-formed starting five. Baldasso led all scorers with 16 points, while Tessitori and Tonut both chipped in with 15 apiece. The Azzurri dominated from start to finish, steadily building their lead throughout all 40 minutes. However, they now face a much tougher opponent, and any previously hidden weaknesses could be exposed.
Match Results: Italy
Lithuania Team Overview
Lithuania have shown less consistency than Italy in this qualifying campaign, securing just three wins from five games. One of their losses came at the hands of the Azzurri. Now, if they are to leapfrog Italy in the final standings, they must exact revenge on Italian soil. Given the strong squad assembled for the July fixtures, led by NBA big man Jonas Valančiūnas, this challenge looks well within Lithuania’s reach.
The Denver Nuggets center was the standout performer in their convincing 105-85 win over Great Britain, posting a double-double with 20 points and 10 rebounds. Tubelis also delivered an impressive showing, chipping in 21 points. Clearly, even without several key players (Sabonis, Grigonis, Ulanovas), this Lithuanian roster has enough quality to go toe-to-toe with an Italian side that is far from full strength.
Match Results: Lithuania
Prediction for the 1st quarter
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 10;
- First quarter wins at home for the hosts - 0; for the visitors on the road - 1;
- Average total points in the first quarter: 40.8;
- Today's home team averages 18.4, while the visitors average 22.4.
First Quarter Stats: Italy (home) vs Lithuania (away)
- Tournament matches played: 2 vs 2;
- Number of wins: 0 (0%) vs 0 (0%);
- Number of losses: 0 (0%) vs 2 (100%);
- Number of draws: 2 (100%) vs 0 (0%).
- Average points scored: 21 vs 18.5;
- Average points conceded: 21 vs 22.5.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- Number of wins: 4 vs 4;
- Number of losses: 3 vs 6;
- Number of draws: 3 vs 0;
- Average first quarter total: 40.6 (scored - 20.8, conceded - 19.8) vs 43.8 (scored - 21.9, conceded - 21.9).
- Italy lost the 1st quarter in 7 of last 8 games against Lithuania.
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of matchups - 10;
- number of wins for the home team - 3, for the away team - 7.
Statistics: Italy vs Lithuania
- number of tournament matches played: 5 vs 5;
- number of wins: 4 (80%) vs 3 (60%);
- number of losses: 1 (20%) vs 2 (40%);
- number of wins at home for the home team: 1;
- number of away wins for the away team: 1.
Last 10 matches:
- number of wins: 8 vs 6;
- number of losses: 2 vs 4;
- number of home wins for the home team: 3;
- number of away wins for the away team: 2.
- Lithuania won with a +1.5 points handicap in 8 of last 9 games against Italy.
- Lithuania won with a +1.5 points handicap in 8 of last 9 games.
- Lithuania won with a +1.5 points handicap in 7 of last 8 away games (World Cup Qualification, Europe).
- Lithuania won with a +1.5 points handicap in last 5 games (World Cup Qualification, Europe).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H:
- average total points per match for the home team - 76.6, for the away team - 81.5;
- average total points in H2H matches - 158.1.
Statistics: Italy vs Lithuania
- average total in the tournament: 162.8 vs 176.4;
- average total points scored: 87.4 vs 91.8;
- average total points conceded: 75.4 vs 84.6;
- average total points scored in the 1st half: 44 vs 46.4;
- average total points scored in the 2nd half: 43.4 vs 45.4;
- Italy: average total points scored at home in the tournament - 80;
- Lithuania: average total points scored away in the tournament - 87;
- last 10 matches (average total points scored): 85.2 (home - 78.6) vs 86.6 (away - 85).
- Italy have scored over 80.5 points in 12 of last 14 games (World Cup Qualification, Europe).
- Italy have scored over 80.5 points in last 5 games.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Both teams consistently put up more than eighty points and possess potent offenses, but Italy have shown greater stability of late, riding a four-game winning streak. Their solid defense makes the hosts a real threat. However, their current opponents are simply too strong. Lithuania’s roster boasts more individual talent - three NBA players should make a significant difference. On top of that, the Baltic side are highly motivated to avenge their narrow home loss in the previous head-to-head clash. We’re backing an away win.No comments
Betting Tips: Italy - Lithuania
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