China vs Japan Prediction 3 July 2026
🔊 In one of the World Cup qualifiers, China and Japan are set to face off. This clash draws attention as it features two fierce rivals. The visitors currently top Group B, but they hold just a one-point advantage over the hosts, who sit third. Notably, it was China who claimed victory in the first head-to-head meeting between these teams. Now, the Japanese squad are determined to get their revenge, even though bookmakers have them as underdogs.
Head-to-Head
📊Statistical analysis of previous official games between the teams China and Japan:
- played 7 matches;
- wins (including extra time): 6 for today's home team and 1 for the guests;
- the home team averages 85.86 points per match, the guests - 70.14;
- average total match points - 156.
The last confrontation took place on 26 February 2026 at the venue of Japan and ended with a score of 80:87.
Head-to-head statistics China - Japan
China Team Overview
China head into this clash riding back-to-back wins in their World Cup qualifying campaign. Offensively, the team have shown consistency, averaging 84.7 points per game. However, their defense has been less convincing, conceding an average of 85.7 points to their opponents. While China aim to strike a balance between offense and defense, they are allowing more points than expected for a side with ambitions to top their group.
The roster still boasts plenty of quality and experience, with standouts such as Jin Qiu, Fanbo, Sanning, and Hansen. Zhao will miss this matchup against Japan, but even without him, China have everything needed to secure another win over a tough opponent.
Match Results: China
Japan Team Overview
Japan are cruising through World Cup qualifying, topping a challenging group with authority. Through four rounds, they've stumbled just once - falling to China 80-87. Their formula for success starts with a rock-solid defense, holding opponents to just 73.3 points per game. Offensively, Japan are also impressive, averaging 82 points per contest.
Before this campaign tipped off, the basketball federation made a bold move by replacing coach Hovasse with Oketani - a decision that has clearly paid off after Japan's disappointing FIBA Asia Cup showing. For the July qualification window, nearly all top players have been called up, including Hawkinson, Watanabe, and Tominaga. As a result, fans are expecting Japan to seek revenge against China for that earlier defeat.
Match Results: Japan
Prediction for the 1st quarter
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 7;
- First quarter wins at home for the hosts - 1; for the visitors on the road - 0;
- Average total points in the first quarter: 37.29;
- Today's home team averages 21, while the visitors average 16.29.
First Quarter Stats: China (home) vs Japan (away)
- Tournament matches played: 1 vs 1;
- Number of wins: 0 (0%) vs 0 (0%);
- Number of losses: 1 (100%) vs 1 (100%);
- Number of draws: 0 (0%) vs 0 (0%).
- Average points scored: 16 vs 17;
- Average points conceded: 24 vs 22.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- Number of wins: 5 vs 6;
- Number of losses: 5 vs 4;
- Number of draws: 0 vs 0;
- Average first quarter total: 42.3 (scored - 20.6, conceded - 21.7) vs 36.2 (scored - 20.1, conceded - 16.1).
- Under 40.5 points in the 1st quarter in last 5 China games against Japan.
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of matchups - 7;
- number of wins for the home team - 6, for the away team - 1.
Statistics: China vs Japan
- number of tournament matches played: 4 vs 4;
- number of wins: 2 (50%) vs 3 (75%);
- number of losses: 2 (50%) vs 1 (25%);
- number of wins at home for the home team: 0;
- number of away wins for the away team: 1.
Last 10 matches:
- number of wins: 6 vs 7;
- number of losses: 4 vs 3;
- number of home wins for the home team: 4;
- number of away wins for the away team: 2.
Prediction on the over/under
H2H:
- average total points per match for the home team - 85.86, for the away team - 70.14;
- average total points in H2H matches - 156.
Statistics: China vs Japan
- average total in the tournament: 170.5 vs 156;
- average total points scored: 84.75 vs 82;
- average total points conceded: 85.75 vs 74;
- average total points scored in the 1st half: 36.5 vs 44;
- average total points scored in the 2nd half: 48.25 vs 38;
- China: average total points scored at home in the tournament - 76;
- Japan: average total points scored away in the tournament - 80;
- last 10 matches (average total points scored): 84.5 (home - 82.17) vs 83.1 (away - 84).
⭐ Editor's Pick
Both national teams have been playing high-scoring basketball, rarely dipping below the 80-point mark. China consistently puts up around 84 points per game but tends to give up easy looks on defense, as evidenced by their average of nearly 86 points conceded per match. However, with so much at stake in this head-to-head clash, expect both sides to place a greater emphasis on defense. It’s also worth noting that Japan boast the best defense in the group. In what promises to be a tightly contested and intense battle filled with emotion and physicality, points could be at a premium, with both teams likely limiting each other’s offensive production. The smart play here is on under 162.5 total points.No comments
Betting Tips: China - Japan
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