Mercury vs New York Liberty (W) Prediction 1 August 2026
๐ In this WNBA regular season clash, the Phoenix Mercury take on the New York Liberty. Both sides are well-equipped defensively, setting the stage for a tactical battle where disruption could be the key factor. The visitorsโ attempts to push the tempo are unlikely to pay off against such disciplined opposition.
Head-to-Head
๐ The most recent meeting between these two sides took place at the end of May, with New York hosting and coming away with a 75-68 victory. Looking at their last five head-to-head clashes, Liberty hold a slight edge with three wins to two.
Head-to-head statistics Mercury - New York Liberty (W)
Phoenix Mercury (W) Team Overview
At the moment, Phoenixโs womenโs basketball team are riding a three-game winning streak. Most recently, they edged out Golden State in a tight contest (89-91). Overall, their style of play hasnโt exactly been wide open - if anything, their last outing was more of an exception. Previously, they managed to grind out a low-scoring win over the Sparks (86-82) and completely shut down Connecticutโs offense (72-63). Itโs clear their tactical approach wonโt change here. Opening up against New York is hardly a sensible plan, so the hosts are likely to try and slow things down once again - even if it comes at the expense of their own scoring. On average, Phoenix put up 84.1 points per game while conceding 86.3.
Match Results: Phoenix Mercury (W)
New York Liberty (W) Team Overview
The New York Liberty are putting together some solid basketball right now. Yes, they recently fell to Las Vegas (99-104), but before that, the team had strung together three straight wins. More often than not, the visitors thrive on offense, averaging 89.5 points per game. However, their defense remains a concern, as they concede an average of 87.5 points. With the pace likely to slow down, both teams may see fewer possessions and shot attempts. In this scenario, Liberty will look to capitalize on their offensive efficiency - and they certainly have the tools to make it work.
Match Results: New York Liberty (W)
Prediction for the 1st quarter
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 51;
- First quarter wins at home for the hosts - 14; for the visitors on the road - 9;
- Average total points in the first quarter: 41.53;
- Today's home team averages 20.51, while the visitors average 21.02.
First Quarter Stats: Phoenix Mercury (W) (home) vs New York Liberty (W) (away)
- Tournament matches played: 15 vs 17;
- Number of wins: 7 (46.67%) vs 9 (52.94%);
- Number of losses: 6 (40%) vs 8 (47.06%);
- Number of draws: 2 (13.33%) vs 0 (0%).
- Average points scored: 23 vs 23.12;
- Average points conceded: 22.33 vs 22.71.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- Number of wins: 5 vs 6;
- Number of losses: 5 vs 4;
- Number of draws: 0 vs 0;
- Average first quarter total: 42.3 (scored - 20.5, conceded - 21.8) vs 48.1 (scored - 24.6, conceded - 23.5).
- New York Liberty (W) scored under 21.5 points in the 1st quarter in 8 of last 9 away games against Phoenix Mercury (W) (WNBA).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H:
- average total points per match for the home team - 81.57, for the away team - 80.33;
- average total points in H2H matches - 161.9.
Statistics: Phoenix Mercury (W) vs New York Liberty (W)
- average total in the tournament: 170.45 vs 177.06;
- average total points scored: 84.13 vs 89.53;
- average total points conceded: 86.32 vs 87.53;
- average total points scored in the 1st half: 42.71 vs 43.91;
- average total points scored in the 2nd half: 41.29 vs 44.72;
- Phoenix Mercury (W): average total points scored at home in the tournament - 85.2;
- New York Liberty (W): average total points scored away in the tournament - 92.71;
- last 10 matches (average total points scored): 82.4 (home - 81.83) vs 93.9 (away - 95.83).
- New York Liberty (W) have scored under 88.5 points in 15 of last 17 away games against Phoenix Mercury (W) (WNBA).
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of matchups - 51;
- number of wins for the home team - 29, for the away team - 22.
Statistics: Phoenix Mercury (W) vs New York Liberty (W)
- number of tournament matches played: 29 vs 29;
- number of wins: 13 (41.94%) vs 18 (56.25%);
- number of losses: 18 (58.06%) vs 14 (43.75%);
- number of wins at home for the home team: 6;
- number of away wins for the away team: 9.
Last 10 matches:
- number of wins: 5 vs 5;
- number of losses: 5 vs 5;
- number of home wins for the home team: 3;
- number of away wins for the away team: 2.
- Phoenix Mercury (W) won with a +7.5 points handicap in 15 of last 17 home games against New York Liberty (W) (WNBA).
โญ Editor's Pick
The Phoenix and New York squads have both shown solid form heading into this matchup, but their playing styles are worlds apart. The hosts are likely to prioritize defense, making it the cornerstone of their approach. Meanwhile, the visitors will look to showcase their offensive firepower, boasting plenty of depth on that end of the floor. However, playing on the road could hamper their rhythm. On top of that, Phoenixโs deliberate pace may significantly limit the number of possessions-and, consequently, total points scored. Our editorial team suggests considering the under 176.5 points.
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Betting Tips: Phoenix Mercury (W) - New York Liberty (W)
in 7 of last 8 away games (WNBA).in 15 of last 17 away games against Phoenix Mercury (W) (WNBA).
in 12 of last 14 home games against New York Liberty (W) (WNBA).in last 7 games against New York Liberty (W) (WNBA).in 8 of last 9 away games against Phoenix Mercury (W) (WNBA).
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