Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction 23 September 2026
📡 Tuesday’s game was postponed due to rain, which means the teams will now play a doubleheader. For this prediction, we’re focusing on Game 1, featuring the originally scheduled starting pitchers: Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt. Baltimore took the opener of the series 4-3, powered by two home runs from Pete Alonso and a late-game comeback. Both clubs still have slim mathematical hopes of clinching a wild card spot, so expect both sides to go all out in the first matchup of the day.
Baltimore leveled the latest ten with a late win in the opening game of the series.
📊 After Baltimore's 4-3 win, the last ten games between these teams are now dead even at 5-5. The Orioles have already shown their strength at home against Toronto this season, posting 9-5 and 6-5 victories in their May series, and they've kicked off this current home stand with another win. The head-to-head remains extremely close, but that late comeback gives the hosts a crucial emotional boost heading into a demanding doubleheader.
Head-to-head statistics Orioles - Blue Jays
The Orioles reignited their power game thanks to Alonso and earned a day off ahead of the doubleheader.
The Orioles snapped a three-game losing streak against a direct rival. Pete Alonso reached the 40-home run milestone, going deep twice, while Gunnar Henderson also added a long ball. Baltimore have shown they can close out games against this opponent: on Monday, they trailed 2-3 heading into the eighth inning but rallied to take the win. After an unscheduled rest day, the key relievers should be fresh and ready for a full workload in the opening game of the doubleheader.
Match Results: Baltimore Orioles
The Blue Jays are running out of margin for error and once again put their trust in Scherzer, who carries an ERA north of 6.00.
The Blue Jays have dropped five of their last seven games and are running out of room for error. Their rotation has taken another hit: Dylan Cease is dealing with a shoulder issue and may not pitch again this regular season. On Monday, Toronto raced out to a 3-0 lead but failed to tack on any runs after the first inning. That inability to build on a strong start once again left the team relying on late-game pitching.
Match Results: Toronto Blue Jays
⚾ Starting Pitchers
Chris Bassitt takes the mound for Baltimore, entering with an 8-5 record, a 4.64 ERA, and a 1.55 WHIP. While his season stats have been inconsistent, his recent outings show marked improvement-he’s held opponents to just one or two runs in several September appearances and is capable of providing five to six solid innings. With an extra day of rest, workload shouldn’t be a concern.
Max Scherzer carries a 3-8 record, a 6.07 ERA, and a 1.36 WHIP into this matchup. His latest start was a strong one-five innings with just one run allowed-but in the previous outing, Baltimore tagged him for six earned runs over five frames. Scherzer has already surrendered 14 home runs in 16 starts this season, which is particularly risky against a lineup featuring power threats like Alonso and Henderson.
⭐ Editor’s Prediction
Toronto bring in the veteran Scherzer, whose experience could deliver a solid short outing, so another blowout like last time is far from certain. Still, Baltimore have already found success against this matchup, putting up six earned runs in their recent head-to-head. The Orioles took the opener, benefited from an extra day of rest, and come into this game with their power bats heating up. Scherzer is carrying an ERA north of 6.00 this season, while Bassitt has looked sharper in September than his overall numbers suggest. In what should be a tight contest, Baltimore also enjoy home field advantage and a fresher bullpen. Our pick: Baltimore Orioles to win.
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Betting Tips: Baltimore Orioles - Toronto Blue Jays
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