How much would you have lost betting Under 2.5 on every 2026 Soccer Championship match?

If the betting strategy on over 2.5 total is not working, a logical question arises: perhaps, bookmakers are making mistakes in the opposite direction? It seems quite simple to flip the market and start betting on under 2.5 goals. Cautious football, the cost of each mistake, and the tension of the World Cup seem to push towards such a decision.

But betting does not like obvious answers. Bookmakers understand the specifics of national team matches and have long taken it into account in the odds. We checked what would have happened to the bank if we had only bet on under 2.5 goals throughout the first two rounds of the 2026 World Cup. The result was no less indicative: changing the side of the market did not turn a losing strategy into a profitable one.

In short: 32 hits in the group stage. ROI -16%. Loss — 11,710 units.

Betting conditions

Scores24 studied how the bank would have changed if we had bet 1000 units on under 2.5 goals in each group stage match of the 2026 World Cup. We based our calculations on the average market odds that were relevant at the start of the match.

Were bets on under 2.5 profitable?

The answer is simple: a widespread trust in low totals in each of the three rounds would have led to failure. Moreover, the ROI would have increased negatively.

How many times under 2.5 was recorded in the 2026 World Cup matches

With each round, the number of such hits and the ROI decreased – from 12 in the first round to 9 – in the third. And if the betting strategy on over 2.5 was let down by low odds on the high-scoring match scenario, then in this strategy the odds were almost always acceptable – only three times did the odds play below 1.50. The number of such hits and blind faith in the strategy without considering the motivation and ambitions of the teams in attack let us down.

Which bets brought the most profit

The most profitable were under 2.5 goals in the matches Spain – Cape Verde (3.50), Panama – England (3.00), Curaçao – Ivory Coast (2.75),Ecuador - Curacao (2.63) and England - Ghana (2.38). The low-scoring scenarios of the matches Paraguay - Australia (1.25), Egypt - Iran (1.40) and Ivory Coast - Ecuador (1.44) had virtually no impact on the bank.

What happened to the bank

None of the group stage rounds turned out to be profitable according to this strategy. Let's look at what would have happened to the bank if we had bet 1000 units on the under 2.5 total in each of the 72 matches of the 2026 World Cup.

• total turnover – 72,000 USD
• number of successful bets – 32
• loss – 11,710 USD
• ROI -16.3%

Conclusion: Should we continue betting on under 2.5?

In one of the articles of our experimental series, we studied the over total strategy, which turned out to be unprofitable. But this does not mean that we should blindly trust and put all the money on low totals – football is much more complex. Matches with fewer goals occur less frequently, and their number is not enough to cover the margin set by bookmakers. The final ROI of -16% looks daunting with no chances of recovery. Yes, the number of games with under 2.5 will increase in the playoffs, but bookmakers also calculate such scenarios, so we should not expect frequent odds above 2.00 for such outcomes.

Predictions for all matches of the 2026 World Cup can be found in the tournament section. Choose your bet on the game with caution.