Betting on total over 2.5 on the 2026 World Cup: how much can you lose
Placing a bet on a total of over 2.5 goals seems to be one of the most logical choices for the World Cup. Fans are expecting exciting football, bookmakers regularly offer matches featuring world-class stars, and the idea that there should be at least three goals in a game seems almost obvious. This is why the "over" market remains one of the most popular among bettors.
The problem is that World Cups rarely meet the expectations of the audience. Cautious football, the pressure of results, and the cost of each mistake often turn potential goal fests into sticky and closed matches. We decided to check what would happen to the bank if we only bet on a total of over 2.5 goals throughout the first two rounds of the 2026 World Cup. The result was unpleasant: even one of the most popular betting strategies would once again lead players to a steady loss.
In short:
- 12 hits in the first round. ROI -2%. Loss — 540 units.
- 13 hits in the second round. ROI -7%. Loss — 1,710 units.
Betting Conditions
Scores24 studied how the bank would change if you bet 1000 units on a total of over 2.5 goals in each game of the first two rounds of the 2026 World Cup. We based our calculations on the average market odds that were relevant at the start of the match.
The table below shows the results of the experiment using the second round as an example.
Results of the Second Round of the 2026 World Cup
Match | Result | Total over 2.5 | Odds |
Czech Republic – South Africa | 1:1 | ❌ | 2.20 |
Switzerland – Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4:1 | ✅ | 1.88 |
Canada – Qatar | 6:0 | ✅ | 1.73 |
Mexico – South Korea | 1:0 | ❌ | 2.20 |
USA – Australia | 2:0 | ❌ | 2.20 |
Scotland- Morocco | 0:1 | ❌ | 2.10 |
Brazil - Haiti | 3:0 | ✅ | 1.36 |
Turkey - Paraguay | 0:1 | ❌ | 2.10 |
Netherlands - Sweden | 5:1 | ✅ | 1.67 |
Germany - Ivory Coast | 2:1 | ✅ | 1.62 |
Ecuador - Curaçao | 0:0 | ❌ | 1.50 |
Tunisia - Japan | 0:4 | ✅ | 2.00 |
Spain - Saudi Arabia | 4:0 | ✅ | 1.33 |
Belgium - Iran | 0:0 | ❌ | 1.93 |
Uruguay - Cape Verde | 2:2 | ✅ | 2.10 |
New Zealand - Egypt | 1:3 | ✅ | 2.20 |
Argentina - Austria | 2:0 | ❌ | 1.98 |
France - Iraq | 3:0 | ✅ | 1.33 |
Norway - Senegal | 3:2 | ✅ | 1.83 |
Jordan - Algeria | 1:2 | ✅ | 1.80 |
Portugal - Uzbekistan | 5:0 | ✅ | 1.44 |
England – Ghana | 0:0 | ❌ | 1.57 |
Panama – Croatia | 0:1 | ❌ | 1.73 |
Colombia – DR Congo | 1:0 | ❌ | 2.10 |
How many times was the total over 2.5 recorded in the 2026 World Cup matches?
In the first round, there were 12 such games – exactly half. The income turned out to be higher than in the second round, where the bet on the over total was more frequent. However, low odds, where bookmakers already expected at least three goals, did not allow for a positive ROI.
Which bets brought the most profit?
The most profitable were the totals over 2.5 goals in the matches New Zealand – Egypt (2.20), Uruguay – Cape Verde (2.10), and Tunisia – Japan (2.00). Almost no impact on the bank were the goals in the games France – Iraq and Spain – Saudi Arabia (both 1.33).
But often such a bet would let down even at low odds. For example, not a single goal was scored in the games Ecuador – Curacao and England – Ghana, although the over 2.5 was offered only at 1.50 and 1.57 respectively.
What happened to the bank?
So far, none of the rounds have been profitable according to this strategy. Let's look at what would have happened to the bank if we had bet 1000 units on the favorite's victory in each of the 48 matches of the first and second rounds of the 2026 World Cup.
- total turnover – 48,000 USD
- number of hits – 25
- loss – 2,250 USD
- ROI -4.7%
Conclusion: should we continue betting on the total over 2.5?
The 2026 World Cup showed that even the most popular bet among football fans does not guarantee profit. Matches with a large number of goals did indeed occur regularly, but this was not enough to cover the margin set by the bookmakers. The final ROI of -5% is not a disaster, but over the distance, such "small" minuses gradually eat away at the bank.
The main conclusion of the experiment is simple: betting on the total over 2.5 just because strong teams or star footballers are on the field is not enough. World Championships have once again proven that the most obvious markets are rarely the most profitable.
You can find predictions for all matches of the 2026 World Cup in the tournament section. Choose your bet on the game with caution.
FAQ
How many times was the over 2.5 goals total bet successful at the 2026 World Cup?
25 times in 48 matches (more than half). But such a number was not enough to come out ahead.
Is it possible to make a profit by only betting on over 2.5 total goals in the 2026 World Cup?
Unfortunately, no. Based on the results of the experiment in the first two rounds, the ROI with such a strategy would have been negative, albeit small (minus 5%).
