UEFA Nations League 2026/2027 Group Stage Outright Predictions

International football now takes over from the club game. The main focus for fans will be on the UEFA Nations League. For the first time in history, the first international break of the autumn will last a full three weeks, with teams playing four matches instead of the usual two or three.

In this article, we present the odds for the League A group-stage outcomes and collect our outright predictions for the group phase. We found arguments for successful or unsuccessful campaigns from Spain, Italy, England and other national teams.

League A Group Stage Outright Odds

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

Group 4

Scores24 UEFA Nations League 2026/2027 Group Stage Outright Predictions

Italy to Reach the Playoffs – Yes

Odds: 2.00

The pick may look spontaneous, but we will try to explain it. Italy are currently going through a reset after several disappointing qualifying campaigns and final tournaments. Roberto Mancini will prepare the team for the next international competitions, and he immediately called up nine debutants.

In practical terms, the UEFA Nations League is not the kind of tournament where knees should be shaking. It is not the Euros, let alone the World Cup. The young players and frustrated experienced internationals should have plenty of motivation to prove themselves immediately against top opposition. Somewhere inside, the emotional Italians are surely still carrying resentment from the failures of previous years.

One advantage is that Italy will play Turkey, the outsiders of the group, twice in this cycle. France and Belgium do not have that luxury. A potential six points would significantly simplify the task of reaching the playoffs. Italy should also have chances against the group favorites: they are unbeaten in five consecutive head-to-head meetings with Belgium. It may not even be necessary to fight Zidane's powerful France for first place — statistics from recent tournaments suggest that 8-9 points should be enough for second.

Greece to Finish 4th in the Group – No

Odds: 1.67

The Hellenization of European football has accelerated over the past couple of seasons and spread across all the top leagues last summer. Greece now have ten players representing clubs from the five major European championships. Tzolis immediately became a key player at Arsenal, Douvikas at Como and Tzolakis at Hull. The form of Vangelis Pavlidis is also impressive: since the start of the club season, he has already scored 14 goals in 13 matches for Benfica.

But Greece are not simply a collection of names who may be starring in the Champions League over the next couple of years. Ivan Jovanovic's project is a major advantage over Germany and the Netherlands, who still have to adapt to the demands of Jurgen Klopp and Xavi. Greece did not reach League A for the first time by accident and are at least capable of staying alive for the relegation playoffs by finishing above Serbia.

Spain to Finish 1st in the Group – Yes

Odds: 1.80

It is even surprising that sportsbooks rate the reigning world champions' chances of winning the group this low. The main battle will obviously be with England, but there are two major concerns: questions around Thomas Tuchel, who openly lost his nerve against Argentina at the World Cup after taking the lead, and a long injury list featuring key players.

On the first point, it seems less like a one-off and more like a recurring problem — whenever England get a favorable scoreline, they are likely to drop deep again and try to hold on. Spain are capable of punishing that. The second issue is even more serious: Declan Rice, Cole Palmer, Kobbie Mainoo, Tino Livramento and Marcus Rashford will all miss the September and October matches. England obviously have no shortage of talent, but Spain do not have the same problems, so three points in the opening game almost seem guaranteed.

Denmark to Reach the Playoffs – No

Odds: 1.60

Denmark do indeed have a strong Nations League reputation. In three consecutive tournaments since being promoted to League A, the Scandinavians finished second in their group, first ahead of England, then France, and then Switzerland. This season, however, Group 4 looks like the most balanced of all, and that could work against the Danes.

Compared with Portugal — incidentally the most decorated team in the competition — and Norway, who reached the World Cup quarter-finals in the summer, Denmark may lack the courage and maturity required. In terms of individual quality, Denmark are also behind the main favorites to qualify for the playoffs.

Top 4 Favorites to Win the UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

According to sportsbooks, the teams with the best chances of winning the tournament are France (3.78), Spain (4.05), England and Germany (both 5.55).

You can follow match results, current data and odds in the UEFA Nations League section of our website.

Odds are shown as of the time of publication and may vary depending on the sportsbook.