Can Tottenham Be Relegated in 2026?

Tottenham’s season is unfolding very differently from what was expected before the start of the campaign. Right now, the London club needs at least two points to avoid relegation from the Premier League. With three rounds to go, Tottenham are the worst team in the league and a real candidate for relegation.

In brief:

😱 17th place in the EPL

😱 2 wins in 2026

😱 around 1-2 points needed to stay up

In this article, we will try to analyze both the scenario in which Spurs are relegated to the Championship and the one in which they retain their place in the Premier League. However, it is important to understand that the possibility of a tense end to the season is no longer unrealistic. Even one or two good or bad weeks can drastically change a team’s position in the table.

Is it really possible for Tottenham to be relegated from the EPL?

Current Position

After 35 rounds, Tottenham is in 17th position in the English Premier League standings. The key point is not their current position, but the trend. And here, the positives are not on the side of Roberto De Zerbi's team. Let's look at the last 5 and 10 matches of the season.

Tottenham’s last 5 matches: 7 points, 2 wins, goal difference 5:7

Tottenham’s last 10 matches: 8 points, 2 wins, goal difference 10:19

However, the performance trend of Tottenham and their direct rival in the fight for survival is much more revealing.

Not only the results are alarming, but also the statistics of goals scored and conceded over the last ten matches. Below is a table comparing with direct competitors.

What bookmakers and statistical assessments say

Currently, bookmakers in England slightly favor Tottenham staying in the EPL (79%), according to the latest bookmakers rating. Odds of 3.75* are offered for the London club to be relegated. For comparison, West Ham’s relegation is priced at 1.30.

*Here and further: odds are indicative at the time of publication and may differ across various betting lines

How Many Points Are Needed for Survival in the EPL

Let’s try to answer the question of Tottenham’s “survival” using numbers. The London club’s average PPG (points per game) this season is 1.06. That means, based on expectations, Spurs will collect around three points in the remaining three matches. We are not claiming that Tottenham’s maximum or minimum is exactly three points — football is played and coached by people, not numbers. However, based on historical statistics, three points should be enough for the North London team to stay in the Premier League. It all comes down to the survival threshold.

Survival Threshold in the EPL

Tottenham’s current expected points total by the end of the season (39) is a solid benchmark for the Premier League. And here’s why — over the last 15 seasons, a team finishing with 39 points would have stayed in the Premier League in 14 cases.

We examined the survival threshold in the EPL from the 2010/2011 season based on four main indicators:

• average points of the team in 17th place (survived),
• average points of the team in 18th place (relegated),
• median points of the team in 17th place,
• median points of the team in 18th place.

The average value is more sensitive to variations where the relegated team scored very few points or the surviving team scored many, whereas the median reflects a typical Premier League season. The metrics for the 18th team can be interpreted as “if you don’t even score this many points, you are almost guaranteed to be relegated to the Championship,” while the metrics for the 17th team can be seen as “if you score at least this many points, you are almost guaranteed to retain your place in the Premier League.”

Tottenham's Schedule Until the End of the Season

The London club has three matches left to play before the end of the season — two of them against teams from the top half of the table. Below is the schedule of Spurs’ remaining matches, with the opponents’ positions in the Premier League standings after 35 rounds indicated in brackets.

Competitors' Schedule Until the End of the Season

You may have already drawn certain conclusions after looking at Tottenham’s fixture list. But now it’s time to examine the opponents of the London club’s main rivals in the fight for survival — West Ham and Nottingham Forest.

Probability of Tottenham's victories in the remaining matches

We will regularly update this section after the lines for later games involving Tottenham are released. For now, let's consider the options for the upcoming rounds.

Best Bets on Tottenham Until the End of the Season

Tottenham vs Leeds. The hosts love scoring at home

Leeds United is one of Tottenham’s favorite opponents — at least in terms of scoring. The London side has scored at least two goals in each of their last seven home head-to-head matches against Leeds. Bookmakers are quite generous with this scenario, offering odds of 1.82 on Tottenham’s individual total over 1.5 goals.

Tottenham vs Everton. Home Team Not to Lose

At home, the Londoners have not lost in 16 of the last 17 head-to-head encounters against the Liverpool club. By the 38th round, Tottenham might secure their place in the EPL, remain in the fight, or even face early relegation. In any case, the last home match of the season for the “Spurs” against a “favorable” opponent should not end in a loss.

*Odds are approximate, may vary across different bookmakers, and are accurate at the time of publication.

Have There Been Cases Where Top Clubs Were Relegated from the Top League?

Yes, it is not uncommon. Only in modern In the history of the English Premier League, Aston Villa and Newcastle were relegated (in 2016), and the most unexpected champion of the 21st century, Leicester (in 2023), is now just a step away from League One.

In other European leagues, the most notable relegations in recent years have been experienced by Genoa (2022), Bordeaux (2022), Schalke (2023), Wolfsburg (2025), and Saint-Étienne (2025). This current season could set a record for sensational losses, as teams like Sevilla, Fiorentina, Nice, and the most titled club in Poland, Legia, are teetering on the brink of relegation from their top divisions.

Final Prediction: Will Tottenham be relegated?

Returning to our previous calculations, let's try to answer the question: is it realistic for Tottenham to gain at least 2 points to almost certainly remain in the Premier League? Let's assume yes.

The most promising match in terms of avoiding defeat looks to be against direct rival Leeds United. The team could earn the remaining point through a draw against Everton or even a single victory over Liverpool — by matchday 38, their opponent may already have no tournament motivation left (unless sending Tottenham down to the Championship counts as one). However, we may face a scenario where the season becomes unique and 38 points are not enough to survive due to a large gap between the 18th and 19th teams.

If De Zerbi is a magician, he will keep Tottenham in the Premier League. And most likely, it will only be officially decided in the final round. But even if he is not — West Ham will also need to win at least once, or even more.

Scores24 Editorial Verdict: Tottenham will remain in the Premier League.

You can find more articles with football predictions in the Articles section on our website. Here are some of them:

• Who will win the Premier League in 2026: Manchester City or Arsenal?
• Bayern Munich: German Champion 2026. Summary, Statistics, and Predictions