Who will win the Premier League in 2026: Manchester City or Arsenal?
In the 2025/26 season, the battle for the title in the English Premier League has turned into a scenario where two clubs are neck and neck without the slightest gap. Manchester City and Arsenal have the same number of points and even the same goal difference, and the only thing that currently separates the teams in the table is the number of goals scored. It is by this indicator (66 against 63) that with five rounds to go, the "Citizens" are above the "Gunners".
The championship could be decided not only by results but also by details: one extra goal, one lost draw, or a successful match against an underdog. In such conditions, it is especially important not just to assess the form of the teams, but to understand where the real advantage lies - and which bets in this race make sense.
The current situation in the EPL table
Let's look at the English championship table after 33 rounds.
Position | Team | Points | Goal difference | Goals scored |
1 | Manchester City | 70 | +37 | 66 |
2 | Arsenal | 70 | +37 | 63 |
Pep Guardiola's team has produced a stunning streak of three consecutive victories, including a game against Arsenal (2:1), and quickly made up for the deficit. The teams have the same number of points, the same goal difference, and Manchester City is only higher due to a higher scoring rate (66 goals for City against 63 for Arsenal).
How the champion is decided when teams are level on points
According to Premier League regulations, team positions are determined by a set of criteria:
- Points
- Goal difference
- Goals scored
- Points in head-to-head matches
- Away goals scored
If teams remain level across all criteria, a playoff match at a neutral venue is theoretically possible. However, at least this season, such a scenario is unlikely. While the first three criteria could still end up identical, Manchester City are ahead in head-to-head points — they beat Arsenal at home (2:1) and drew away (1:1).
It’s important to remember the order of tiebreakers. Right now, teams should focus not only on the third factor (goals scored), but primarily on the first (obviously) and the second — winning matches by as large a margin as possible.
How many points will City and Arsenal score - scenario calculation
With five rounds left until the end of the championship, there are many scenarios. It will be difficult to consider each one individually. But we will choose the most likely and interesting ones.
Both teams win the remaining matches
One of the most likely scenarios. In this case, the teams will finish the season with 85 points each, and the calculation of the goal difference and the number of goals scored will come into play.
Both teams lose points
Here everything is relatively simple too. If one of the clubs starts losing points, then its table rival must lose at least as many points to continue comparison by the second and third indicator, or more points.
One of the teams starts losing
An unlikely scenario, considering the schedule. Yes, one defeat at such a distance is possible, but even with such a layout, the fate of the title will be decided in the final 38th round.
Interestingly, if the average point per game (PPG) for both teams is 2.12 per game, then when divided into home and away games, a difference appears. Manchester City at home averages 2.44 points (Arsenal - 2.38), away - 1.82 (Arsenal - 1.88). If we consider that both Manchester and London teams have three games left at home and two away, then according to the average indicators, City will score 10.96 points in the remaining five matches, Arsenal - 10.90.
Teams' form
But in the context of the championship race, it would be more accurate to evaluate not only the overall seasonal indicators, but also the current form of the teams in the Premier League. Over the distance of 5 and 10 games, the advantage is in favor of City.
Last 5 matches | Last 10 matches | |
Manchester City | 13 points, 4 wins, 0 losses | 24 points, 7 wins, 0 losses |
Arsenal | 9 points, 3 wins, 2 losses | 20 points, 6 wins, 2 losses |
Considering the current context with the goal difference and effectiveness, it is important to consider these indicators over distance.
Last 5 matches | Last 10 matches | |
Manchester City | 9-4 | 19-8 |
Arsenal | 7-5 | 21-9 |
Over the course of ten games, Arsenal is still the best both in terms of goal difference and the number of goals scored. But over the last five games, the "citizens" have overtaken the opponent – they have a three-point better difference and two more goals scored.
Manchester City vs Arsenal Schedule
Let's examine the schedule of the teams' remaining matches in the championship. The brackets indicate home (h) or away (a) games, as well as the opponent's place in the league table after 33 rounds.
Manchester City | Arsenal | |
34th round | Everton (a, 10) | Newcastle (h, 14) |
35th round | Brentford (h, 9) | Fulham (h, 12) |
36th round | Bournemouth (a, 7) | West Ham (a, 17) |
37th round | Crystal Palace (h, 13) | Burnley (h, 19) |
38th round | Aston Villa (h, 4) | Crystal Palace (a, 13) |
Out of context, Arsenal's schedule looks much easier - all opponents are outside the top 10. Manchester City has four opponents currently in the top ten, and one in the Champions League zone.
But considering the context, the situation evens out. Arsenal has a flight to Madrid for the first match of the Champions League semi-final stage squeezed between matches against Newcastle and Fulham, and a return game before the meeting with West Ham.
City has an additional match - a meeting with Southampton in the semi-finals of the FA Cup on April 25. In case of defeat, Guardiola and Co will be able to focus on the Premier League title race, in case of victory - in mid-May they will be waiting forThe final game and a potential rescheduling of the match against Crystal Palace to midweek.
In other words, both Guardiola's team and Arteta's team are fighting not only for the Premier League trophy. But psychologically, of course, if necessary, City can "sacrifice" cup matches, which cannot be said about Arsenal's attitude towards Champions League matches.
Probability of victories in the remaining matches
It is interesting to consider what bookmakers think about the probability of victories. This section will be regularly updated to provide you with current information.
Probability of outcomes in the remaining Manchester City matches
Manchester City's Opponent | Win | Draw | Loss |
Everton, away | 63% | 21% | 17% |
Brentford, home | – | – | – |
Bournemouth, away | – | – | – |
Crystal Palace, home | – | – | – |
Aston Villa, home | – | – | – |
Probability of outcomes in the remaining Arsenal matches
Arsenal's Opponent | Win | Draw | Defeat |
Newcastle, at home | 66% | 21% | 15% |
Fulham, at home | 69% | 20% | 13% |
West Ham, away | – | – | – |
Burnley, at home | – | – | – |
Crystal Palace, away | – | – | – |
Logically, Arsenal is considered the clear favorite in at least two (actually, a similar situation will be in each game) matches. Bookmakers believe a little less in Manchester City, but this is logical - Everton will play at home, the team still has chances for the European cups.
It's interesting to watch these games through the prism of difference - even as clear favorites, teams will have to not just win and hold 1:0, 2:1, and other scores, but to push forward. We are waiting for an amazing final stage, which will be reflected in the forecasts.
Bookmakers' odds for the EPL championship
After Manchester City overtook Arsenal in the table, they also moved ahead in the bookmakers’ calculations — now the probability of success of the “Citizens” is rated higher, according to bookmaker rating.
Odds for the championship | Probability of championship | |
Manchester City | 1.7 | 59% |
Arsenal | 2.2 | 45% |
Best Bets for the Championship Race
It is logical to consider the remaining matches of the teams not so much from the point of view of the result, but also from the point of view of the totals and handicaps market. Surprisingly, someone may not be enough to just win five matches out of five. It needs to be done confidently. And here opens a truly interesting field for predictions.
Arsenal's victory in the match against Newcastle
It will be important for the Londoners to at least not lose points in the next two Premier League games, evenly distributing their strength for the games against Atletico in the Champions League. If the prospects of the final are foggy, you can focus on the Premier League, if the final is a reality - you can think about it for a whole week after the end of the championship. Hence the simple choice - Arsenal's victory at 1.53*. Newcastle will approach the game with four consecutive defeats and a weak prospect of rectifying the situation.
*Here and further: the odds are given approximately at the time of publication and may differ in different bookmaker lines
Manchester City's victory over Everton with a handicap (-1)
But Manchester City, regardless of their performance in the FA Cup, needs to pull away in goal difference right now. The "Citizens" have beaten their opponent in each of the last nine matches in Liverpool, and in 8 out of 9 - with a difference of at least two goals. Hence the logical choice - Manchester City's victory with a handicap (-1) at 1.9.
Maximum one goal from Newcastle
Arsenal knows how to play according to the score both within the match and within the series. In the Champions League against Bayer, where the team needed to win in the return game, the Londoners showed this perfectly. And the "Magpies" in 5 out of 6 last away matches in the Premier League did not score more than one. The editorial choice for the game - Newcastle's individual total less than 1 at 1.6.
Everton - Manchester City: both will score
But it will not be easy for Manchester City to play reliably in defense. Everton has scored at least one goal in 8 out of 9 last home games (at the time of writing). This should not be a problem for the "citizens" - the team is capable of scoring more than it concedes. The editorial choice for the game - both will score (yes) at 1.73.
Historical examples of championship races until the last round
Apparently, the Premier League will once again give us a denouement in the 38th round. Surprisingly, it is in England that such denouements in the spirit of a Hollywood blockbuster happen most often.
Of course, the most legendary of them occurred in 2012, when Manchester City saved themselves in the final match of the championship (turned the game with QPR in extra time from 1:2 to 3:2) and won the championship thanks to the goal difference.Then, "the Citizens" surpassed Manchester United (+64 against +56).
The legendary ones can be listed as follows:
- City's victory in the 2018/19 season - then they, along with Liverpool, had amazing seasons and winning streaks at the finish, scoring 98 and 97 points respectively;
- City's victory in the 2013/14 season - then the team was second after Liverpool with three rounds left to the end of the championship;
- Bayern's championship in the 2022/23 season - the Munich team took advantage of Borussia Dortmund's draw and surpassed them in the last round.
Final prediction: who will win the Premier League
Bookmakers do not rate the likelihood of Manchester City's championship higher for no reason. We have combined the main tournament factors to offer you a key prediction.
Why Manchester City might win?
- the colossal experience of the team and Guardiola in such a fight until the last round,
- the absence of vital matches in other tournaments (with all due respect to the FA Cup),
- the current advantage (it cannot be discounted that at this stage Manchester City is the first),
- higher indicators in terms of points and performance at home, in terms of performance - away,
- psychological advantage - the team has made up a colossal lag and surpassed the opponent.
Why Arsenal might win?
- a lighter match schedule without games against top-10 teams,
- potential layouts for the Champions League, where an exit will allow to concentrate forces on the fight for the Premier League trophy,
- more stable play in defense both at home and away.
Final prediction - Manchester City will become the champion
Taking into account the factors described above, the key ones of which we consider to be the experience of "the Citizens" in similar scenarios and the psychological advantage, we are ready to assume that the champion of England in the 2025/2026 season will be Manchester City. The bookmakers offer a coefficient of 1.7 for this outcome.
Even more predictions for Premier League matches can be found in a special section. If you are interested in detailed analysis of end-of-season scenarios in European football, we recommend you to pay attention to our other articles:
FAQ
Who is currently leading the Premier League and why?
After 33 rounds in the Premier League standings, Manchester City is leading. They and Arsenal have the same number of points, the same goal difference. Manchester City is ahead of its rival in terms of goals scored (66 against 63).
What happens in case of a tie in points in the Premier League?
In the event of a tie in points in the English championship, the second priority indicator is the goal difference, the third is the number of goals scored, and the fourth is the outcomes of head-to-head matches.
Who is the bookmakers' favorite to win the Premier League?
Bookmakers consider Manchester City the favourite, who, according to their calculations, will win the tournament with a probability of 59%. The odds for City's victory are 1.70.
How many points are needed for the championship?
In the history of the Premier League, there have been situations where even 97 points were not enough to secure the championship. The maximum that teams can currently score is 85 points. And under certain circumstances, this number of points may not be sufficient to win the championship in 2026.
