England vs Japan Prediction
🔊 Will one of the favorites for the upcoming World Cup pass the Japanese test? On March 31, at Wembley, England will host Japan, a team that remains unbeaten against European sides for seven consecutive matches and last year defeated Brazil. For Thomas Tuchel, this is a chance to evaluate those players who have yet to secure their spot on the World Cup roster. For Japan, it's another opportunity to make history by defeating the inventors of football for the first time.
Head-to-Head
📊 England have never lost to Japan in their three encounters: they secured two 2-1 victories in 1995 and 2010, along with a 1-1 draw in 2004. All these matches were friendlies. Overall, Asian teams have never defeated the English side (10 matches, 4 draws, 6 losses).
H2H Stats Matches and Previous Teams Results
England Team Overview
In the fall of 2025, England played six friendly matches and emerged victorious in all of them with an aggregate score of 19-0. Thomas Tuchel's squad comfortably topped their World Cup qualifying group, finishing with a goal difference of +22 over eight matches. They were the only national team to keep a clean sheet throughout the campaign! Riding this wave of success, they headed into a friendly against Uruguay (1-1).
Tuchel fielded an experimental lineup, and the result reflected that decision. The "Three Lions" appeared disjointed, lacking rhythm and creativity in attack. The only goal came from Ben White, who returned to the national team after nearly four years away. However, he conceded a penalty late on, allowing Federico Valverde to equalize and end England's 629-minute streak without conceding. It was Uruguay's first and only shot on target.
Match Results: England
Japan Team Overview
Japan heads into their clash against England riding a four-game winning streak, including an away victory over Scotland (1-0) last Saturday. The lone goal came in the 84th minute from Junya Ito, marking his fourth goal contribution in the last three matches (1 goal, 3 assists). Notably, Hajime Moriyasu took advantage of the Kirin World Challenge 2026 regulations, under which these friendlies are played, by substituting all ten outfield players against the Scots.
At Wembley, the "Samurai" are likely to employ a defensive setup with five at the back. They have not conceded in their last three outings. Following a comeback victory over Brazil (3-2), they secured clean-sheet wins against Ghana (2-0), Bolivia (3-0), and Scotland (1-0). This team certainly has the potential to pose problems for the English side.
Match Results: Japan
Latest news
England
🎙 Thomas Tuchel: “Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice? They were eager to play, wanted to be involved in the match, but it didn't make sense to take any risks. It was clear they were experiencing discomfort. There was a risk of worsening the situation. We also won't take chances with Jude Bellingham. When a player is regaining form after a muscle injury, you never know what might happen.”
❌ Eight players have left the England squad. Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka have gone for medical examinations at Arsenal. John Stones is out due to calf muscle issues. Noni Madueke and Adam Wharton picked up injuries during the match against Uruguay. Fikayo Tomori, Aaron Ramsdale, and Dominic Calvert-Lewin have also returned to their respective clubs.
Japan
🎙 Kaoru Mitoma: “In the second half against Scotland, we really opened up and created plenty of chances. It was great because we won, but it would have been better if we had made it 2-0 or 3-0. Against England, I want us to be even more aggressive defensively. There might not be as many opportunities in attack, but I want the ones we do create to be dangerous. Some of the England players know me, so if they are cautious with me, I think I can turn that to my advantage. Brighton fans might come too. It's a rare opportunity to play at such a great stadium with the Japan national team.”
❌ Japan will be without defender Takehiro Tomiyasu, who is forced to stay with Ajax due to injury. Captain Wataru Endo and vice-captain Takumi Minamino are not included in the squad for this call-up due to fitness issues. Otherwise, all key players are ready: Kaoru Mitoma, Daichi Kamada, and Ritsu Doan, who came off the bench against Scotland, are expected to start.
🟨 Yellow Card Prediction
The main referee is Nick Walsh. In his last five matches across all competitions, the Scottish referee has shown an average of 4.2 yellow cards per game. Over his last ten matches, this figure drops to 3.3. England's average over their last ten games is 1.2 yellow cards, while Japan's is 1.3. Given that even against the tough Uruguayans, the bet on under 3.5 yellow cards came through, it seems even more likely in the upcoming match where neither team is known for rough play.
⚽ Goal Prediction
The situation is as follows: 4 of England's last 6 friendlies and 3 of Japan's last 5 matches have ended with over 2.5 goals. The English have conceded in 3 of their last 4 friendlies, while the Japanese have scored in five consecutive games. Considering England will again field a less than optimal lineup and Japan are not afraid to face top opponents, a goal exchange seems likely. A logical option is both teams to score (yes).
🚩 Corner Prediction
England at home will actively use the flanks, pinning Japan in their own third. The English have averaged 7.7 corners per game over their last ten home matches. Japan are also strong in this area, earning about 5.6 corners per game away from home. Given these numbers, a bet on over 9.5 total corners seems quite reasonable.
🚀 Player Stats Bet
Kaoru Mitoma could become the focal point of Japan's attack. He's well-acquainted with English football, playing as a winger for Brighton. Having come off the bench against Scotland, he's likely to start against England. His dribbling and speed could pose a problem for the hosts' defense. The odds on Kaoru Mitoma to score or assist are around 4.00*.
😱 Risky Bet
Japan have already beaten Brazil (3-2) under Carlo Ancelotti and defeated Germany (4-1) and Spain (2-1) in 2023 and 2022, respectively. Hajime Moriyasu's team doesn't fear big opponents and knows how to exploit space, while England have been inconsistent in friendlies. In a game where the hosts will test their squad depth, an upset is possible. Consider Japan to win. Odds for this start at 5.60*.
👀 If the Match Doesn't Go as Planned
If the first half ends in a draw, Hajime Moriyasu is likely to unleash his fresh bench in the second half, which could be a significant weapon against an opening English side. A live bet on Japan to score in the second half might be an interesting option. The "Samurai" have scored 11 goals in their last five matches, with eight coming after the break.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.
Editorial Prediction
The intrigue of this match centers around how seriously Thomas Tuchel approaches the game. On one hand, he needs to give his key players some playing time after their rest period. On the other hand, the result of a friendly against Japan carries little weight, and the risk of injuries ahead of the World Cup is significant. Japan, by contrast, arrives with a clear plan: to test themselves against one of the World Cup favorites. Moriyasu's team has already shown they are capable of upsets, with high-caliber players ready to capitalize on even minor mistakes. We believe the hosts will secure a victory due to their superior class and home support, but not in a blowout, while the visitors are likely to find the net as well. Our main pick is both teams to score (yes). Predicted scoreline: 2-1.
Betting Tips: England - Japan
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in 14 of last 16 Japan games (Int. Friendly Games).
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