Ethiopia vs Senegal Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 29 September 2026
📢 Ethiopia and Senegal meet in the second round of 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifying. The opening matchday brought neither side any joy: Ethiopia lost their first game, while Senegal also dropped points unexpectedly. The gap in quality between the two teams remains clear, which makes it all the more interesting to see how both respond after a poor start to qualifying.
🔁 We will update this prediction on match day. Any important pre-match developments will be covered in the Latest News section.
Head-to-Head
📊 Ethiopia and Senegal have not met each other in the 21st century.
Head-to-head statistics Ethiopia - Senegal
Ethiopia Team Overview
Ethiopia sit just 143rd in the FIFA rankings and have had little to show for themselves on the international stage in recent years. Unsurprisingly, they are considered the clear outsiders of the group. In the opening round of qualifying, they travelled to Sudan and held the score at 0-0 for long stretches, but ultimately came away empty-handed, conceding the only goal of the game on the 86th minute.
Match Results: Ethiopia
Senegal Team Overview
Senegal cannot look back on the start of their qualifying campaign with any satisfaction either, having drawn 1-1 away to Mozambique. The performance suggested one of Africa's strongest sides deserved more: Senegal had 66% possession, had 14 shots to Mozambique's 7 (5-2 on shots on target), and outperformed their opponents in xG by almost eight times (1.56 against 0.21). Senegal also took the lead, but were unable to hold on to it.
Match Results: Senegal
Latest news
Senegal
🔁 Update - 29 September, 6:11 UTC:
- Senegal are having to cope without long-serving goalkeeper Édouard Mendy, who has retired from international football, and Sadio Mané, who was left out of the squad due to a muscle problem. Centre-back Nobel Mendy is a doubt for the upcoming match.
Total Goals Prediction
In 9 of Senegal's last 10 matches, the total has gone under 2.5 goals, pointing to a clear tendency towards low-scoring games. On top of that, Senegal concede an average of 1 goal per match this season, while Ethiopia concede an average of 0 goals at home. There are no significant factors that contradict this data, so a low-scoring outcome seems the logical expectation. The pick is Total Goals - Under 2.5 at 1.89*.
Reliable Bet
In 10 of Ethiopia's last 11 matches, the total goals have gone under 3.5, pointing to a consistently low-scoring pattern in games involving them. This is supported by the broader seasonal averages: Ethiopia concede very little, and Senegal have not been particularly prolific this season either. The bet on Total Goals - Under 3.5 at odds of 1.34* therefore looks reliable.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐️ Editorial Prediction
In the bookmakers' view, Senegal are clear favourites, and the gap in squad quality fully justifies that status. After an unexpected dropped points in the first round, the visitors should take this match against a noticeably weaker opponent particularly seriously. Our pick is therefore a Senegal win. Expected score: 0-1.
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Betting Tips: Ethiopia - Senegal
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in 10 of last 11 Ethiopia games (Cup of Nations, Qualification).in 7 of last 8 Ethiopia home games.in 6 of last 7 Ethiopia games.in 12 of last 14 Senegal away games.in 9 of last 10 Ethiopia home games (Cup of Nations, Qualification).in 6 of last 7 Ethiopia home games.in last 5 Senegal games.in last 19 games.in last 11 games (Cup of Nations, Qualification).in last 6 away games (Cup of Nations, Qualification).Comparison of Teams Stats
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