Atletico PR vs Flamengo Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 17 May 2026
🔊 The clash between Athletico Paranaense and Flamengo stands out as one of the marquee fixtures of this round in Brazil’s Serie A. These sides come into the match with contrasting ambitions and under differing levels of pressure: Flamengo remain firmly in the title race, while Athletico Paranaense are looking to solidify their place in the upper tier of the table and build consistency after a challenging start to the campaign. The home advantage in Curitiba, meanwhile, has long made Athletico a tough proposition-even for the league’s heavyweights.
Head-to-Head
The most recent official clash between these sides took place on 29 September 2024 and ended in a 1-0 victory. Here’s a comparative breakdown of that encounter (Flamengo were the home side):
- Possession: 70% vs 30%;
- Corners: 6 vs 1;
- Fouls: 12 vs 12;
- Yellow cards: 2 vs 2;
- Shots on target: 5 vs 2.
📊 Statistical preview of official head-to-head meetings between Athletico Paranaense and Flamengo:
- They have faced each other 54 times;
- The hosts have claimed 19 wins, while the visitors have secured 24 victories; there have been 11 draws;
- Goals scored: 63 for Athletico Paranaense, 72 for Flamengo;
- Average goals in the first half: 1.13; in the second half: 1.37;
- The average total goals per match is 2.5.
Head-to-head statistics Atletico PR - Flamengo
Atletico Paranaense Team Overview
The team's most recent official fixture took place on in the Copa do Brasil, with Atlético Goianiense playing host to Athletico Paranaense. The match ended in a goalless draw, 0-0.
Here are the key match statistics (Athletico Paranaense vs Atlético Goianiense):
- Possession: 49% vs 51%;
- Corners: 1 vs 4;
- Fouls committed: 13 vs 18;
- Yellow cards: 3 vs 4;
- Shots on target: 2 vs 4.
🔴 Athletico Paranaense come into this match in less-than-ideal form. Odair Hellmann’s side have managed just two wins in their last five league fixtures and suffered a 0-1 defeat to Vasco da Gama in the previous round. However, they remain a formidable force at home: in Curitiba, they’ve seen off Vitoria (3-1), Chapecoense (2-0), and Botafogo (4-1). Athletico’s hallmark under Hellmann has been an intense, vertical style-high-tempo football built on physical duels and rapid transitions down the flanks. They consistently apply pressure at home, but often struggle to convert chances against sides adept at keeping possession. This issue is particularly apparent when they face Brazil’s top clubs.
⚫ Defensively, Athletico are well-drilled, especially on their own turf. In recent home games, they’ve rarely allowed opponents to create many clear-cut opportunities from open play. Still, squad depth remains a concern: with a congested fixture list, their pressing intensity tends to drop off after the break. The atmosphere at the Arena da Baixada will be another key factor-this ground is notoriously tough for Brazil’s elite. The slick surface and passionate home support traditionally help Athletico set a high tempo right from kickoff.
Match Results: Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo Team Overview
The visitors last played an official match on in the Copa do Brasil, with Vitória hosting Flamengo. Flamengo secured a 2-0 victory.
Here are the key stats from the match (Flamengo vs Vitória):
- Possession: 74% vs 26%;
- Corners: 8 vs 1;
- Fouls: 14 vs 12;
- Yellow cards: 2 vs 2;
- Shots on target: 7 vs 4.
🔴 Flamengo are once again among the frontrunners for the title and head into this fixture in significantly more stable form. Filipe Luís’ side sit near the top of the table and continue to impress as one of the league’s best teams in terms of positional play and ball control. Flamengo’s biggest asset remains their squad depth and the quality of their midfield. They are able to dictate matches through possession, efficiently breaking down high pressing opponents with quick, short passing. Brazilian analysts consistently highlight the strength of their central midfield and Flamengo’s ability to control the tempo, even on tough away trips.
⚫ That said, the team are dealing with some selection issues. According to fans and local media, the coaching staff have been forced to rotate their attacking line in recent weeks due to a congested fixture list and minor injuries to several players. Despite these challenges, Flamengo’s bench depth allows them to maintain a high standard of play. Recent head-to-head stats are also worth noting: Flamengo have enjoyed considerable success against Athletico Paranaense in recent seasons, often neutralising their opponent’s aggressive style through superior ball retention and individual quality.
Match Results: Flamengo
Match Outcome Prediction
Head-to-Head:
- Matches played - 54;
- Home wins - 19, away wins - 24, draws - 11.
Stats: Athletico Paranaense vs Flamengo
- Matches in the competition: 15 vs 14;
- Wins: 7 vs 9;
- Win percentage: 47% vs 64%;
- Losses: 6 vs 2;
- Draws: 2 vs 3.
Last 10 matches:
- Wins: 4 vs 7;
- Losses: 4 vs 1;
- Draws: 2 vs 2.
Total Goals Prediction
Head-to-head (average total goals):
- Home team - 1.17, away team - 1.33;
- Combined average in head-to-heads - 2.5;
- Both teams have scored: all-time - 25 times; at the home ground - 13 times.
Average total stats: Athletico Paranaense vs Flamengo
- In this competition: 2.4 vs 2.79;
- Goals scored: 1.33 vs 1.93;
- First half: 0.6 vs 0.93;
- Second half: 0.73 vs 1;
- Athletico Paranaense at home in the competition - 1.88;
- Flamengo away in the competition - 1.75;
- Last 10 matches: Athletico at home - average of 1.8; Flamengo away - average of 1.67.
- Over 1.5 goals has landed in 14 of the last 16 head-to-heads between these sides (Serie A).
- Over 1.5 goals has landed in seven of the last eight head-to-heads at Athletico’s ground (Serie A).
- Over 1.5 goals has landed in 15 of Flamengo’s last 16 matches.
- Over 1.5 goals has landed in 14 of Flamengo’s last 15 Serie A fixtures.
- Over 1.5 goals has landed in 12 of Flamengo’s last 13 away matches (Serie A).
- Over 1.5 goals has landed in eight of Flamengo’s last nine away games.
Corners Prediction
Athletico Paranaense: Stats
- This season: average corners per match - 4.53; at home - 5.5;
- Last ten matches: average corners - 3.8; at home - 4.4.
Flamengo: Stats
- This season: average corners per match - 4, away - 3.5;
- Last ten matches: average corners - 4.7; away - 4.33.
- Flamengo have delivered over 4.5 corners in six consecutive head-to-heads between these two sides (Serie A).
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Head-to-Head:
- Matches played - 54;
- Both teams have scored all-time - on 25 occasions;
- At Athletico’s ground - on 13 occasions.
Stats: Athletico Paranaense vs Flamengo
- Matches played in the competition: 15 vs 14;
- Matches this season with both teams scoring (BTTS): 7 vs 7;
- Athletico Paranaense BTTS at home - four times (50%);
- Flamengo BTTS away - four times (50%).
Last ten matches:
- BTTS matches: three for Athletico, five for Flamengo;
- Athletico Paranaense BTTS at home - two times (40%);
- Flamengo BTTS away - two times (33%).
Correct Score Prediction
Most common results this season:
- The most frequent scoreline in the competition is a 1-1 draw (21/147, or 14.3%);
- Athletico Paranaense at home most often finish with a scoreline of either 2-0 or 2-1 (2 out of eight, or 25%);
- Flamengo away most often finish with a scoreline of 1-2 (2 out of eight, or 25%).
Based on statistical analysis and probability distribution, the algorithm suggests these top three outcomes:
1-1 - probability: 13.01% (odds: 6)
0-1 - probability: 11.44% (odds: 7)
1-2 - probability: 8.9% (odds: 8.5)
⭐ Editorial Prediction
This clash promises to be tight and intense. Athletico Paranaense are traditionally a formidable force at home and always make life difficult for any opponent. However, Flamengo currently look more convincing across nearly every key metric, with Filipe Luís’s side displaying greater consistency and quality in their performances. While Athletico tend to play aggressively on their own turf, they often struggle with finishing, whereas the visitors excel at dictating the tempo and controlling possession. The most likely scenario is a cautious contest, with the reigning champions creating the better chances. Our prediction: Flamengo to score in the second half.
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Betting Tips: Atletico Paranaense - Flamengo
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