Primeira Liga predictions: Round 22. 13/02-16/02
Santa Clara – Benfica
José Mourinho's team took advantage of the draw between Porto and Sporting to close the gap on them. The title race is in full swing. Ahead is a challenging away match against Santa Clara. In the first round, the teams played to a high-scoring draw (1:1), and recent matches between the opponents suggest a minimal difference in the scoreline. Benfica hasn't been thrashing their opponents, and Santa Clara has only been losing by a narrow margin.
Match Prediction for Santa Clara – Benfica: Home win with a handicap (+1.5)
Tondela – Alverca
The hosts haven't won in five matches, drawing in the last two rounds. Alverca, on the other hand, routinely dropped points to the top teams and is now traveling for a win. The first-round match ended in their favor with a 1:0 scoreline. Both teams have been low-scoring this season, which might lead to reduced goal output. Nevertheless, the value of the points at stake is extremely high. The hosts often leave the field without scoring, while the visitors usually limit themselves to one goal. We're trying the under.
Match Prediction for Tondela – Alverca: Total under 2.5 goals
Casa Pia – Arouca
At the time of writing this preview, the odds for the opponents are roughly equal, which is not surprising. The clubs lack the necessary stability, only occasionally delivering quality football. Currently, they seem to be on the right track: Casa Pia hasn't lost in their last three matches, and Arouca has won three out of their last four games. The winner is hard to predict, but there's an important detail: out of nine head-to-head encounters, only three saw both teams scoring. We suggest following this proven trend.
Match Prediction for Casa Pia – Arouca: Both teams to score (No)
Vitória Guimarães – Estrela
Vitória has lost three out of four matches since winning the League Cup, and not all opponents were top-tier. They have an advantage over Estrela, who are clearly weaker over a long series of head-to-head matches. The visitors have issues with form and attack, rarely scoring more than one goal per game. The hosts, as mentioned above, are still finding their footing, playing far from perfectly. A low-scoring scenario can be attempted in the hope that the teams will play cautiously.
Match Prediction for Vitória Guimarães – Estrela: Total under 2.5 goals
Gil Vicente – Braga
The 5th and 4th place teams in the championship will face off. The match is intriguing. In the first round, Gil Vicente secured an away victory (1:0), and Braga surely wants revenge here and now. The visitors appear slightly better in form, but they didn't have to play against Porto. Speaking of head-to-head encounters, a low-scoring scenario prevails, as the clubs have opted for a defensive style of play for years. It makes sense to stick to this, as each opponent will likely want to play from a position of strength. That's why it's essential to use the strongest qualities.
Prediction for the match Gil Vicente – Braga: total under 2.5 goals
Nacional – Porto
It seems that Porto has somewhat lost its momentum. There are noticeable mistakes. An away match against Nacional, who always performs well in front of their fans, will be challenging. By the way, in January 2025, the team defeated Porto at home (2:0). In its current form, Nacional is quite capable of finding a way to the "dragons'" goal. However, one should not forget about the potential of the giant. The increased motivation after a draw with Sporting cannot be discounted. We are considering a high-scoring scenario, which seems quite optimal in this case.
Prediction for the match Nacional – Porto: total over 2.5 goals
ABC – Estoril
The hosts have only five points. It seems that the first relegated team is already determined. ABC is performing poorly, and there are no signs of improvement. Estoril is coming for a win, considering their excellent form and success in the first round with a score of 3:1. The visitors have no issues with their attack, while ABC scores only on rare occasions and often not more than one goal. We do not see any intrigue in this match.
Prediction for the match ABC – Estoril: away win
Sporting – Famalicão
A powerful attack against a solid defense. There seems to be no other headline for this match. Sporting is trying to pressure Porto and is waiting for their mistakes, while Famalicão is trying to stay in the upper part of the table. Looking at head-to-head encounters: the "lions" have scored less than 2.5 goals against Famalicão at home in seven out of nine occasions. A good bet.
Prediction for the match Sporting – Famalicão: home team individual total under 2.5 goals
Rio Ave – Moreirense
It will be difficult to determine the winner in this match, as both opponents are on a losing streak. In head-to-head meetings, neither has the upper hand. But there is one fact: the high scoring nature of the clubs, especially Rio Ave, which often follows a high-scoring scenario. The hosts will clearly try to score many goals with the support of their fans, while Moreirense is far from perfect in defense.
