Predictions for the 34th round of the Primeira Liga, May 16-17
Famalicão vs Casa Pia
In the final round, table neighbors will face off, with only one point separating them. Interestingly, last season the teams also finished neck and neck. Famalicão is the favorite due to playing at home, however, Casa Pia has not lost in their last three away matches and defeated the "white-blues" during their last visit to Vila Nova de Famalicão. In our opinion, João Pereira's team has a good chance of earning points.
Match Prediction for Famalicão vs Casa Pia: Away win with handicap (+1)
Rio Ave vs Gil Vicente
Gil Vicente trails Rio Ave by three points, but a win in the upcoming match would allow them to overtake their opponent, as they have a better goal difference. Predicting the outcome of this match is very difficult, so let's turn to trends. They indicate that both teams have scored in 4 of their last 5 head-to-head encounters. We expect the trend to continue.
Match Prediction for Rio Ave vs Gil Vicente: Both teams to score
Sporting vs Vitória Guimarães
Winning the match is the seemingly simple task for Sporting in the final round. The "Lions" surpass Benfica in head-to-head results, so a victory guarantees them the championship. The problem is the opponent is quite challenging – Vitória Guimarães, who are fighting for fifth place, which grants a spot in the Conference League. Nonetheless, Sporting is in excellent form and has defeated the "Conquerors" in seven consecutive home matches (with a score of 3:0 in the last two instances), so we do not expect an upset.
Match Prediction for Sporting vs Vitória Guimarães: Home win with handicap (-1.5)
Braga vs Benfica
Benfica failed to defeat Sporting in the last round, so the fate of the championship is out of their hands. Even with a victory over Braga, the "Eagles" risk ending up without the trophy. The opponent, while challenging, is quite manageable. The Lisbon team has defeated the "Arsenalistas" in 6 of their last 7 head-to-head encounters, twice this year already, knocking them out of the League Cup and then the Portuguese Cup. Bruno Lage's team showed overwhelming superiority, making another victory the most likely outcome.
Match Prediction for Braga vs Benfica: Away win
Estoril vs Estrela
For the hosts, this match is of little significance in terms of the standings, but for the visitors, it is incredibly important. In case of a loss, Estrela risks falling into the direct relegation zone. It is likely that the motivation factor influenced the betting odds, which are almost equal. We will not risk betting on the outcome, instead, we will play the "over". In the first-round match, the opponents delivered a goal fest, scoring six goals. The scenario of the upcoming game also might be open, especially if the visitors are trailing in the score.
Prediction for the match Estoril vs Estrela: Total Over 2 Goals
Porto vs Nacional de Madeira
Will the "Dragons" hold onto third place in the indirect battle with Braga? For this not to happen, something unimaginable would have to occur, but there is still a mathematical chance, which adds motivation for Martin Anselmi's team. As for Nacional, they are already safe from relegation, so they can be at ease. Interestingly, in the first-round match, Porto lost to this opponent (0:2), which means they will definitely try to take revenge, closing an unsuccessful season with a confident home victory.
Prediction for the match Porto vs Nacional de Madeira: Home Win with Handicap (-1)
Farense vs Santa Clara
Arguably one of the most intriguing matches of the final round of the Primeira Liga. The reason is that both teams are highly motivated. The hosts need a win to avoid relegation, while the visitors need it to qualify for European competitions. Three points do not guarantee the desired outcome for either, but the chances will be there. There is a real gap between the teams in the standings, but the odds are equal because Farense defeated top-8 representatives in a couple of recent rounds. Considering the importance of the upcoming match and the fact that in head-to-heads, the teams rarely hit the over (only in 1 of the last 8 meetings), we expect a low-scoring game.
Prediction for the match Farense vs Santa Clara: Total Under 2.5 Goals
Arouca vs Boavista
Arouca is the dominant force in this pair, at least recently, as the last three head-to-head encounters against Boavista ended in their favor. However, a more notable trend is that the over total was hit in 5 of the last 6 matches between the teams. Considering the standings of the opponents, it is quite likely we will witness another high-scoring game.
Prediction for the match Arouca vs Boavista: Total Over 2.5 Goals
AVS vs Moreirense
Moreirense will play this match and then calmly head into the offseason, while the fate of AVS is uncertain. Currently, the team is in the playoff zone and by the end of the final round, they could either drop lower or save themselves from relegation. The hosts are clear favorites, but they have never beaten the "green-whites" in history and have only secured three points in 1 of the last 9 rounds. Therefore, we do not share the bookmakers' opinion.
