Predictions for the 5th Round of the Premier League, September 20-21
Liverpool vs Everton
The 5th round of the Premier League will kick off with a notable fixture, the Merseyside derby, which is definitely not to be missed. Everton rarely puts up a fight against Liverpool at Anfield, having lost their last four matches there without scoring. However, at the start of this season, the "Toffees" are performing well and are in the top 7, while the champions, despite having maximum points, are struggling from match to match and cannot boast confident victories. This gives hope for intrigue, but we still don't believe in an upset. In the last couple of Premier League matches, Arne Slot's team has kept clean sheets, making it difficult for the visitors to even hope for a goal, let alone a positive result.
Match Prediction for Liverpool vs Everton: Liverpool to win
Brighton vs Tottenham
Last season, Brighton defeated the "Spurs" twice (3:2; 4:1) and hopes to extend their successful streak. However, Tottenham is now a different team – under Thomas Frank, they are capable of playing for results, adapting to their opponent. Therefore, the outcome looks highly unpredictable. In such circumstances, it makes sense to focus on the scoring, which has been crazy in the head-to-head meetings of these teams. The over was hit in the last five matches, three times with a large margin (total over 4.5 goals). We expect the opponents to maintain the high standard.
Match Prediction for Brighton vs Tottenham: total over 2.5 goals
Burnley vs Nottingham Forest
Ange Postecoglou's first match in charge of Nottingham ended in disaster – the team was soundly beaten by Arsenal (0:3). The Australian maintained the usual low block for the "Tricky Trees," but even that didn't prevent a thrashing at the Emirates. Burnley, on the other hand, was outplayed by Liverpool on all fronts, but nearly secured points with just 19% possession, conceding from a penalty in the 95th minute (0:1). It feels like a significant drop in the level of opposition should benefit the "Clarets." We don't consider them underdogs in the upcoming match – at home, Scott Parker's men should fight for crucial points.
Match Prediction for Burnley vs Nottingham Forest: Burnley will not lose
West Ham vs Crystal Palace
How much longer will West Ham's struggles continue? Conceding 11 goals and sitting in the relegation zone is a disaster for a team with such a lineup. It seems that with Graham Potter at the helm, there is no bright future for the "Hammers." Should the management delay his dismissal? Perhaps after the upcoming match, this question will be taken off the agenda. On Saturday, an unbeaten Crystal Palace will visit the London Stadium. Moreover, the "Eagles" are not only doing well at the moment, and for a long time now in head-to-head encounters against West Ham – they have lost only one of the previous six. Considering the current state of the teams, a change in trend seems unlikely.
Match Prediction for West Ham vs Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace will not lose
Wolverhampton vs Leeds
Next on the list is a battle of relegation contenders. Leeds have just been promoted from the Championship, while Wolverhampton have been steadily moving towards it in the last couple of seasons. The start of the current campaign is better for the "Peacocks," who have already collected four points, whereas the "Wolves" have only achieved a positive result in the League Cup match. The teams score very little (only three goals between them), but in a head-to-head "six-pointer," being overly cautious makes no sense – they need to score as much as possible to improve their dismal goal difference. Considering Daniel Farke's bold style of play, we expect a goal exchange – this bet has won in four consecutive head-to-head Premier League encounters between the opponents.
Match Prediction for Wolverhampton vs Leeds: both teams to score (yes)
Manchester United vs Chelsea
We move to Manchester, where one of the central matches of the round will take place – a true Premier League classic. Both teams have faced problems at the start of the season, but these problems are of different magnitudes. Chelsea have dropped points a couple of times but are still unbeaten, whereas United are in a slump, especially after the thrashing in the Manchester derby. It might seem clear-cut, but not so fast. The "Blues" will arrive at "Old Trafford" after an unsuccessful trip to Munich, while the "Red Devils" had a whole week to work on their mistakes and recover physically. Therefore, we won't delve into outcomes here; instead, we'll play the same bet on a goal exchange. The teams have delivered this outcome in 7 of the last 8 head-to-head meetings.
Match Prediction for Manchester United vs Chelsea: both teams to score (yes)
Fulham vs Brentford
Solid mid-table Premier League teams will battle for points. Fulham will host Brentford at "Craven Cottage." There's only a one-point difference between the teams – the "Cottagers" are ahead. However, there's a more significant argument in their favor – Marco Silva's protégés have not lost at home this season, whereas the "Bees" have been defeated in both away games. Moreover, they expended energy in the League Cup midweek, where they managed to beat Aston Villa only in a penalty shootout. Therefore, we see the hosts as favorites and, considering the high-scoring nature of the teams' head-to-head meetings, we expect them to score at least two goals.
Match Prediction for Fulham vs Brentford: Fulham's individual total over 1.5 goals
Bournemouth vs Newcastle
Not the most top-tier matchup by name, but likely one of the best in terms of intrigue. Bournemouth seems unfazed by the summer sales, delivering their best start in Premier League history. Newcastle isn't as strong yet, but they finally secured a long-awaited victory in the last round and are certainly aiming for European competitions. However, these very European competitions might hinder the "Magpies" in the domestic league. While the "Cherries" calmly prepared for the 5th round of the Premier League, Eddie Howe's team was battling Barcelona in the Champions League. Against this backdrop, the hosts appear to be decent favorites, and the odds allow for a cautious bet that they won't lose. It's worth noting that Bournemouth dominates in head-to-head meetings – two wins and three draws in the last five matches.
Match Prediction Bournemouth vs Newcastle: Bournemouth will not lose
Sunderland vs Aston Villa
What's happening with Aston Villa is the main mystery at the start of the English season. Recently, the team finally opened their scoring account, but still didn't achieve a positive result, being knocked out of the League Cup by Brentford. Sunderland, on the other hand, defeated that very Brentford in the league, and overall, the "Black Cats" have had an excellent start, placing in the top-6. On home turf, Regis Le Bris's combative team can certainly count on a goal against a crisis-stricken Aston Villa, which only miraculously didn't concede against Everton in the last round.
Match Prediction Sunderland vs Aston Villa: Sunderland will score
Arsenal vs Manchester City
Here comes the main event of the round. We've made it! To ensure no one doubts the status of the match, it has been scheduled in a separate time slot. Everyone will watch the showdown of giants at the "Emirates." It wouldn't be an exaggeration to say that this is almost the last chance for Man City to stay in the title race. If Guardiola's squad loses, the competitors will take a significant lead. The previous meeting between the teams in London ended disastrously for the "Citizens" (1-5), so Arsenal is justifiably considered the favorite. Moreover, they will have noticeably more time to recover after the Champions League match. In our opinion, the "Gunners" look more cohesive and pragmatic, which will help them secure a victory this Sunday.
