Predictions for the 1st Round of the Premier League, August 15-18
Liverpool vs Bournemouth
Will the "Reds" defend their champion title? The answer to this question won't be provided by the first-round match, but it will show how Arne Slot's team reacted to their failure in the English Super Cup game. A second consecutive defeat for the star-studded "Merseysiders" would be a worrying sign. Unlike Liverpool, Bournemouth has been more focused on selling than buying this summer, and the "Cherries" have yet to play any official matches. However, even considering the level of their opponent, Andoni Iraola is unlikely to abandon his bold playing style, so we can expect a high-scoring game with goals on both sides. It's worth noting that a bet on both teams to score has won in 9 out of Bournemouth's last 10 Premier League matches.
Match Prediction for Liverpool vs Bournemouth: both teams to score
Aston Villa vs Newcastle
Arguably one of the most intriguing fixtures of the first round. The teams ended the last season with the same number of points. Neither Newcastle nor Aston Villa made any truly high-profile transfers, with all due respect to Anthony Elanga and Evann Guessand. The managers remain in place, so essentially, these are the same teams that exchanged significant home victories last season. Betting on the outcome seems too risky in this case, so let's focus on the scoring potential. The opponents have hit the "over" in their last 6 head-to-head meetings, and we expect the same now.
Match Prediction for Aston Villa vs Newcastle: total over 2.5 goals
Tottenham vs Burnley
Burnley returns to the Premier League with a match against one of the underdogs. Of course, that's a joke, but Tottenham did finish the previous season near the relegation zone. Daniel Levy is determined not to let that happen again, which is why Ange Postecoglou was dismissed, even despite winning the Europa League. Thomas Frank almost won a trophy in his first official match at the helm of the "Spurs," but his team squandered a two-goal lead against PSG, losing in a penalty shootout. Notably, it was the Londoners, who had a full preseason, that physically faltered at the end. We believe bookmakers are underestimating Burnley, who conceded only 16 goals in 46 matches in the previous Championship season. A Tottenham victory is possible, but a rout is unlikely.
Match Prediction for Tottenham vs Burnley: away win with a handicap (+2)
Brighton vs Fulham
A mid-table clash in the first round of the Premier League. It's unlikely that either team will contend for European competitions this season. Fulham hasn't strengthened at all so far, and Brighton, despite a few signings, has lost more – their main star Joao Pedro has moved to Chelsea. It's important to note that both opponents had a strong preseason – the "Cottagers" are on a 3-match winning streak, and the "Seagulls" haven't lost once.lost, securing 4 victories in 5 encounters. The current form of the teams can be considered comparable, so let's look into the history of head-to-head matches. Here we see total dominance by the Londoners – Brighton has only 1 win in the last 10 matches, and that was thanks to a goal by the same João Pedro in the 98th minute. Therefore, we bet on Fulham not losing.
Match Prediction for Brighton vs Fulham: the visitors will not lose
Sunderland vs West Ham
The long-awaited return of Sunderland to the EPL has occurred. And in the first round, the "Black Cats" have a decent chance to earn points, as bookmakers do not consider West Ham, who had a weak last season, as the clear favorite. However, the Premier League newcomer, despite extensive purchases, failed the preseason, losing 5 of the last 6 matches, which is concerning. The "Hammers," on the other hand, are on a streak of 3 victories, having only lost to MU in the summer. Graham Potter is a coach who needs time to establish his playing system, and he has received it. We believe West Ham will manage to start with three points.
Match Prediction for Sunderland vs West Ham: victory for the visitors with a handicap (0)
Wolverhampton vs Manchester City
It's time to assess how successfully Pep Guardiola has reshaped Man City. It seems the "Citizens" won't need to give their all in the first round. Wolverhampton only takes points from them on rare occasions, and they had a dreadful preseason, suffering 3 consecutive defeats. The "Wolves" lost their main creative unit – Matheus Cunha, and whether the newly acquired John Arias from Fluminense will fill that role is a big question. It seems sensible to place a straightforward bet on the favorite in this match.
Match Prediction for Wolverhampton vs Manchester City: victory for the visitors
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford
Two teams with serious ambitions will face off in the first round. Both sold their leaders over the summer but also significantly strengthened. The difference is that while the "Foresters" are still coached by Nuno Espírito Santo, the "Bees" have a new project with Keith Andrews at the helm. Nottingham was significantly more active in the offseason, playing twice as many matches, but what surprises is not this, but the team's scoring ability. 1 goal in 7 matches is something. We wouldn't expect a bright football display from such hosts.
Match Prediction for Nottingham Forest vs Brentford: total under 3 goals
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace, after an inconsistent preseason, went on to defeat Liverpool in the English Super Cup match. Next up for Oliver Glasner's team are none other than the world champions. Chelsea won the revamped tournament, and in recent friendlies, they also...looked very lively, defeating Bayer (2:0) and Milan (4:1). The "pensioners" hold the status of favorites for the upcoming match, but there are reasons to doubt their success. After all, last season the "eagles" managed to take points from Enzo Maresca's men twice. Therefore, we suggest betting on both teams to score, which has occurred in 5 of the last 6 head-to-head encounters between the teams.
Prediction for the Chelsea vs Crystal Palace match: both teams to score
Manchester United vs Arsenal
The main event of the first round of the English Premier League. Manchester United, who had a disappointing last season, will face Arsenal, who didn't fail but also didn't win anything. Both teams have huge ambitions, and their summer signings reflect this – both the "Red Devils" and the "Gunners" spent over 220 million euros on new players. The question is, why do bookmakers see the visitors as quite serious favorites? United showed the best results in the pre-season and have only lost 2 of the last 10 home matches against the Londoners. The support of the "Theatre of Dreams" is an important factor, which is why we believe that Ruben Amorim's men will earn points.
Prediction for the Manchester United vs Arsenal match: the hosts will not lose
Leeds vs Everton
Everton has improved since David Moyes returned to the managerial helm and significantly strengthened during the summer window, adding Jack Grealish on loan to their batch of transfers. However, Championship winners Leeds also conducted a large-scale recruitment, intending to stay in the elite. Therefore, the teams appear to be roughly equal in strength, and the odds reflect this. Yes, the "Peacocks" are in noticeably better form if judged by friendly matches, but official games are a completely different story. We believe that Daniel Farke's men will not manage to storm into the Premier League with a victory, as the "Toffees" are a very inconvenient opponent for Leeds. The "Whites" have not beaten them since 2020 – for 5 consecutive matches.
