Predictions for the French Championship: Matchday 32 of Ligue 1, May 2-4
Nice vs Reims
A matchup between teams with different objectives for the end of the season and, consequently, different motivations. Nice took a decisive step towards the Champions League zone in the last round by defeating PSG away (3:1). Meanwhile, Reims, although unable to beat the struggling Montpellier away (0:0), will likely avoid relegation playoffs and can now prepare for the French Cup final (May 24 against PSG). We predict that Nice will win by at least 2 goals.
Match Prediction for Nice vs Reims: Home win with a handicap (-1)
Strasbourg vs PSG
Strasbourg is desperately fighting for a spot in the Champions League zone, and they are just 1 point away from the coveted top-4. PSG is fully focused on the current Champions League campaign, with this match sandwiched between two semifinals against London’s Arsenal. Significant rotation is expected in the “Parisians” lineup. In the last round, PSG lost at home to Nice (1:3). Given the teams' tournament motivations, we predict that Strasbourg will not lose.
Match Prediction for Strasbourg vs PSG: The hosts will not lose
Toulouse vs Rennes
Teams with no tournament motivation for the remaining rounds are facing off. Rennes has been playing lively and spirited in recent matches (6 out of 8 matches ended with three or more goals, and in 4 matches the total of 3.5 goals was even surpassed), while Toulouse is ending the season rather dull, with a series of 7 matches without a win (0-2-5). There are notable trends for goals from the teams involved. Toulouse has conceded at home in 10 consecutive matches, and Rennes has scored in 6 of their last 7 away matches. We suggest betting on goals from the “Red and Blacks.”
Match Prediction for Toulouse vs Rennes: Away team’s individual total over 1 goal
Saint-Étienne vs Monaco
Saint-Étienne and Monaco are highly motivated for the upcoming match. The hosts are fighting for survival, while the visitors are aiming for a top-4 finish. In the last round, both teams complicated their tasks. Saint-Étienne lost to one of Monaco’s competitors, Strasbourg (1:3), and the “Monegasques” unexpectedly drew with the “Saints’” competitor, Le Havre (1:1). Therefore, both teams need a win. This scenario suggests an open match and is supported by trends for both teams to score. In 7 of the last 8 home matches for Saint-Étienne, both teams scored. In 9 of the last 11 matches for Monaco across all competitions, there was an exchange of goals.
Match Prediction for Saint-Étienne vs Monaco: Both teams to score
Nantes vs Angers
Both teams, with 3 rounds to go before the end of the championship,are in dangerously close proximity to the relegation playoff zone, with the only difference being that Nantes has 2 more points, while Angers is just 2 points away from the alarming 16th place. In this situation, a draw would likely suit Nantes. However, Angers finds it extremely difficult to accumulate points – only 3 points in the last 8 matches (1-0-7). In this case, it's better to look at trends for corners. Nantes has averaged 2.6 corners in their last 10 Ligue 1 matches, while Angers has averaged 3 in their last 10 away games. Therefore, our prediction leans towards a minimum number of corners in the match.
Match Prediction Nantes vs Angers: Total Under 9.5 Corners
Auxerre vs Le Havre
Both teams surprised in the last round. Seemingly unmotivated, Auxerre thrashed Lens away (0:4), while Le Havre put up a fight against formidable Monaco at home and snatched a crucial point in their battle for survival (1:1). Auxerre will play for fun in front of their fans, while Le Havre needs to fight for every point. The "Dark Blues" are in the relegation playoff zone, just one point away from direct relegation, so only a win will suffice for them. Considering this situation, as well as trends in head-to-head meetings (both teams scored in the last 5 matches) and Le Havre's matches (both teams scored in 11 of the last 12), we suggest betting on both teams to score.
Match Prediction Auxerre vs Le Havre: Both Teams to Score
Lyon vs Lens
A match of a clear favorite against an unmotivated opponent. Lens suffered a heavy defeat to Auxerre in the last round (0:4) and lost even the mathematical chances for European competitions; the season is over for the team. Meanwhile, Lyon has bounced back from disappointing losses in Manchester and the derby against Saint-Étienne, thrashing Rennes (4:1), which brought them back into the fight for the top 4. The "Weavers" are not experiencing any gameplay issues and should handle Lens in their current state.
Match Prediction Lyon vs Lens: Home Win
Brest vs Montpellier
Brest intends to finish the season well, as head coach Éric Roy's contract is expiring, and the results at the end could determine its renewal. The team has collected only 1 point in the last 3 matches and has said goodbye to hopes of European competitions. Montpellier broke a dreadful streak of 11 consecutive losses, but it was only against Reims (0:0). Scoring just 2 goals in the last 12 matches is a terrible statistic. In our view, Brest should win without much trouble.
Match Prediction Brest vs Montpellier: Home Win with Handicap (-1)
Lille vs Marseille
The central match of the 32nd round of Ligue 1. Direct competitors in the fight for the top 4 face off.Marseille is currently in second place, while Lille is in third. If either team loses, the risk of not qualifying for the Champions League zone will significantly increase. A draw would more or less suit Marseille, but Lille definitely needs a win. Considering both teams' attacking focus and the head-to-head statistics (both teams scored in 6 of the last 7 encounters), it makes sense to place a bet on both teams to score.
