Predictions for Matchday 2 of Ligue 1, August 22-24
PSG vs Angers
The modest Angers, who narrowly avoided relegation from Ligue 1 last season, are visiting the reigning French champions, PSG. Frankly speaking, the visitors have very little chance in this matchup. This is confirmed by the history of head-to-head encounters – Angers have never beaten the capital team before. In the first round, both clubs secured victories, but they were different in nature. The "black and whites" barely held onto a 1-0 win against Paris, with only 32% ball possession and playing with a man down for half of the second half. PSG, on the other hand, calmly dealt with Nantes away (1-0), not allowing the opponent a single shot on target. The Parisians are gradually gaining momentum and are now determined to showcase excellent football on their home turf, so we expect a confident victory from them and are betting on a handicap (-2.5) for PSG.
Match Prediction for PSG vs Angers: handicap (-2.5) PSG
Marseille vs Paris
The underperformers of the last Ligue 1 round, Marseille and Paris, will meet on Saturday at the "Velodrome." Both teams lost their opening matches in the French championship and are now eager to earn their first points. In the previous round, Roberto De Zerbi's men were favorites in the away match against Rennes but lost (0-1). In that match, Rennes played a man down from the 31st minute and focused solely on defense, yet scored in the 90+1 minute. Marseille had a high xG (1.78) but failed to convert any chances. Paris faced a similar situation in the first round – their opponent also had a sending-off, but this did not help the capital team even to equalize. Despite significant dominance in possession and shots, the Parisians couldn't score. Considering the clear underperformance in expected goals in the last round, the teams should break through in the second – we're betting on both teams to score.
Match Prediction for Marseille vs Paris: both teams to score
Nice vs Auxerre
Having lost three matches in a row, Nice will host Auxerre on their home ground. The "Eaglets'" misfortunes did not end with their exit from the Champions League qualifiers and continued in the first round of Ligue 1, where they lost to Toulouse (0-1). In that match, Franck Haise's team almost reached a goal by xG (0.96) but failed to score and conceded late (in the 89th minute). Auxerre, on the other hand, had the opposite result in the previous round. Christophe Pélissier's team defeated Lorient at home (1-0) and secured a spot at the top of the standings. Auxerre slightly dropped in the second half after scoring, but overall looked quite confident. Considering that in the last 4 head-to-head encounters in Ligue 1, both opponents have consistently scored, we suggest betting on both teams to score.
Match Prediction for Nice vs Auxerre: both teams to score
Lyon vs Metz
Lyon, which has successfully started the current season, is hosting only Metz, which has made its way into the elite. For Paulo Fonseca's players, the French championship started with a 1-0 away win over Lens. Lyon, who scored at the end of the first half, gave the initiative to his opponent in that game, but was able to maintain a minimal advantage. In turn, Metz demonstrated defensive football in a home game with Strasbourg, but could not even take a single point, losing 0:1 – the only goal was scored at the very end of the game. Both opponents did not show anything convincing in the attack in the previous round. It is not necessary to expect a large number of effective actions from them, so we suggest taking a total of less than 2.5.
Match Prediction for Lyon vs Metz: total goals under 2.5
Lorient vs Rennes
Lorient, who did not earn any points in the opening round of the championship, will play at home against Rennes, who won their last match. Olivier Pantaloni's team had decent chances for success in the first round against Auxerre but lost away (0:1). According to expected goals (xG), Lorient should have scored (1.37), but the opponent managed to keep their goal intact. Rennes, on the other hand, had a remarkable home match against Marseille – they held on for 60 minutes with a man down and managed to score at the end (in the 90+1 minute). Notably, Habib Beye's team displayed cohesive defensive actions, not giving Marseille the slightest chance to score. Considering that Rennes will play away, we assume they will again tightly close their defense, possibly even parking the bus, so we expect a low-scoring match – bet on total goals under 2.5.
Match Prediction for Lorient vs Rennes: total goals under 2.5
Havre vs Lens
In the second round of Ligue 1, Havre and Lens, both of whom dropped points in their previous matches, will face off. Both teams had an unsuccessful start to the current French championship and are currently in the lower part of the standings. Havre failed to win any matches in the preseason and continued this trend in official matches. In the first round, they lost away to Monaco (1:3). There were no chances for victory there – only 26% possession and just 0.43 expected goals (xG). Lens, in their opening match of the championship, hosted Lyon and lost 0:1. Despite the defeat, Pierre Sage's team left a positive impression: they had the advantage in possession – 55% to 45%, shots on target – 5:3, and expected goals (xG) – 1.87. Comparing the play of these opponents in the last round, Lens clearly looks stronger.
Match Prediction for Havre vs Lens: away win
Strasbourg vs Nantes
As part of the second round of the French Ligue 1, Strasbourg will host the hopelessly inferior Nantes at the Stade de la Meno. For Liam Rosenor's team, the current championship began with a 1-0 away win over Metz. In that meeting, Strasbourg was the favorite, confidently controlled the course of the match and put the squeeze on the opponent in the end. The statistics are completely on the side of the “racers”: possession – 63% to 37%, shots on target – 4:0, xG – 1.17 to 0.66. Nantes did not succeed at all in the offseason and he approached the championship with a series of 4 defeats. It was not worth expecting Luis Castro's team to shoot in the opening round of Ligue 1 against PSG – as a result, they lost (0:1) without any chance of success. Nantes is not in the best shape right now, and this can be seen from its results, so we are betting on the victory of Strasbourg in the upcoming confrontation.
Match Prediction Strasbourg vs Nantes: home team win
Toulouse vs Brest
Having gained points in their previous matches, Toulouse and Brest will meet in the second round of the French Ligue 1. Both clubs showed commendable football at the start of the championship and are now ready to solidify their success. Toulouse narrowly defeated Nice away (0:1). The only goal in that match was scored at the very end of the game (in the 89th minute). Carles Martinez's team made a total of 10 shots on the opponent's goal, 2 of which were on target. Brest played against Lille in the first round and ended their match in a draw (3:3), coming back twice during the game. Notably, Eric Roy's men showed incredible attacking intent, resulting in three goals. Both clubs performed well in attack, and we expect the same from them in the upcoming match.
Match Prediction Toulouse vs Brest: total goals over 2.5
Lille vs Monaco
On Sunday, Ligue 1 will feature a match between the most prolific teams of the previous round, Lille and Monaco. Both opponents scored 3 goals each and earned their first points in the championship. The "Dogs" played their last match away against a solid Brest: they took the lead twice but only managed a draw (3:3). In terms of ball possession, they had a slight advantage – 54% to 46%, and they won in shots on target – 6:5. Meanwhile, Monaco left no stone unturned against Le Havre, defeating them 3:1. Total domination and ball control (74% to 26%) determined the outcome of that game. Lille has won against Monaco in their last 3 home encounters. Considering that Bruno Génésio's team performed excellently in the previous round, they should at least secure a draw in the upcoming match.
