Liga Portugal Predictions: Gameweek 23: 21/02-24/02
As a result of Sporting's draw with Arouca, Benfica was able to take advantage and reduce the lead to two points. FC Porto ended a series of disappointing results and was victorious in round 22, standing six points behind the leaders, Sporting.
Santa Clara and Casa Pia lost ground with the fourth position after both losing their respective games. At the bottom of the table, Estrela leaped over AVS after winning their game and into safety for the moment. Farense and Boavista look destined for relegation as they are yet to win a game after lengthy spells.
This week’s Liga Portugal gameweek 23 predictions were made based on current form, expert knowledge, and data.
Liga Portugal Gameweek 23 Predictions: 21/02-24/02
Braga will be out to push for the third spot: Sporting Braga vs Nacional
- Date: 21/02/2025
- Kick Off: 20:15 UTC
- Fourth-placed Sporting Braga, with 44 points, will host Nacional, who are 13th with 23 points. Braga have won four of the last five H2H meetings.
A sixth consecutive win wasn’t meant to be for Sporting Braga, as they had to settle for a goalless draw away with Guimaraes. The hosts have won six of their last eight matches, during which they picked up 2.38 points per game. They have won five of their six home games when facing the bottom nine teams. Nacional conceded an equalizer in the 93rd minute against Estrela and deprived them of a second consecutive win for the second time this season. Nacional’s away record is very poor this season, winning only once and losing seven of their 13 games.
Sporting Braga vs Nacional Prediction: Sporting Braga to Win
Two teams with a history of low-scoring H2Hs face off in this matchup: Casa Pia vs Gil Vicente
- Date: 22/02/2025
- Kick Off: 15:30 UTC
- Sixth-placed Casa Pia with 33 points will take on Gil Vicente, who are 14th with 22 points. The last four meetings between these clubs saw two or fewer goals.
Casa Pia suffered their second consecutive away defeat at the hands of Moreirense in the previous round. The majority of Casa Pia’s games this season ended with under 2.5 goals, 59% to be exact. In addition, their games have averaged 2.59 goals per game this season. Gil Vicente are in terrible form, having lost their last four games in the league. The visitors have scored a goal in 55% of their away games, with an average of 0.64 goals per game. Few goals are likely to be scored in this match due to the fact that both teams have played in several low-scoring games this season.
Casa Pia vs Gil Vicente Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals
Benfica are the clear favorites when they host Boavista: Benfica vs Boavista
- Date: 22/02/2025
- Kick Off: 18:00 UTC
- Second-placed Benfica with 50 points will square off against Boavista, who are 18th with 12 points. Benfica have won four of the last five H2Hs.
A single goal win was enough for Benfica to return from Ponta Delgada with all three points after beating Santa Clara. The Eagles have now narrowed the gap with Sporting to just two points, creating a wide-open title race. That was Benfica’s third consecutive win in the league and the fifth in all competitions. Boavista seem to have settled for their fate of being relegated. They suffered their seventh loss in a row after losing 1-0 at home to Estrela in round 22. Boavista have lost all of their six games against the top five teams.
Benfica vs Boavista Prediction: Benfica to Win and Over 2.5 Goals
At least two goals expected when Estoril and Rio Ave meet: Estoril vs Rio Ave
- Date: 22/02/2025
- Kick Off: 20:30 UTC
- Eighth-placed Estoril with 31 points will face off against Rio Ave, who are tenth with 26 points. Two or more goals were scored in the last 17 H2H meetings.
Estoril salvaged a point after scoring in the 93rd minute to end the game with Nacional 2-2 last time out. The hosts are undefeated in seven games, and ten of their past 11 games ended with two or more goals. Since the start of the current campaign, Estoril has had 68% of games produce over 1.5 goals. The same trend happened in Rio Ave’s 77% of matches in the league with an average of 2.73 goals per game. Both teams have been conceding goals regularly: 77% for Estoril and 86% for Rio Ave.
Estoril vs Rio Ave Prediction: Over 2 Goals
Two teams in contrasting forms as the home side are favorites to win: Arouca vs Farense
- Date: 23/02/2025
- Kick Off: 15:30 UTC
- Arouca, who are 12th with 24 points, will take on 17th-placed Farense with 15 points. Arouca covered the double chance in three of the last five H2Hs.
The previous round saw Arouca steal a point from league leaders Sporting in Lisbon, so they are feeling confident going into this match. The hosts are undefeated in seven games, winning three, drawing four, and picking up 1.63 points per game in the last eight rounds. Arouca are undefeated at home against the bottom 11 teams. Farense, on the other hand, have a very tough battle in their hands of staying in the top flight for another season. However, their results are very poor, and the 1-0 home loss against FC Porto in the previous round was their fourth in a row.
Arouca vs Farense Prediction: Arouca to Win
Estrela and Santa Clara meet in a low-scoring encounter: Estrela vs Santa Clara
- Date: 23/02/2025
- Kick Off: 15:30 UTC
- Estrela, who are 15th with 20 points, will square off against fifth-placed Santa Clara with 38 points. Four of the last five H2Hs ended with two or fewer goals.
After six rounds with a win, Estrela finally picked up all three points by beating Boavista 1-0 on the road. The hosts have lost their last three home games and lost eight of their nine games when facing the top six teams in the league. Estrela’s games have an average of 2.41 goals scored, and 59% of their matches produced under 2.5 goals. As for Santa Clara, 64% of their games produced under 2.5 goals, and their matches usually see 2.18 goals per game. Both teams have low scoring rates, with Estrela scoring in 55% of their games and Santa Clara in 68%.
Estoril vs Santa Clara Prediction: Under 2.5 goals
Two teams with opposing incentives meet in this matchup: AVS vs Sporting
- Date: 23/02/2025
- Kick Off: 18:00 UTC
- AVS, who are 16th with 19 points, will host league leaders Sporting, who have 52 points. Sporting won the only H2H meeting by 3-0 earlier this season.
AVS are battling hard to stay in the top flight for another season. They managed to return from Rio Ave with a point in the previous round after a 1-1 draw. However, AVS’s record against the top clubs is very poor, as they lost five of their six games when facing the top five teams. Sporting, on the other hand, need to bounce back quickly from the 2-2 home draw with Arouca. The visitors have won seven of their 11 away games in Liga Portugal and all of their five games against the bottom four teams. They are undefeated in their last four away matches.
AVS vs Sporting Prediction: Sporting to Win
A middle-of-the-table battle between two teams seeking better positions: Famalicão vs Moreirense
- Date: 23/02/2025
- Kick Off: 20:30 UTC
- Ninth-placed Famalicão with 28 points will face off against Moreirense, who are 11th with 26 points. Famalicão covered the double chance in four of the last five H2H meetings.
Famalicão remained unbeaten for the fourth consecutive round after beating Gil Vicente 2-2 in the previous round. The hosts have two wins and six draws in 11 home games this season. However, they have failed to win at home in nine games in the league. Moreirense ended an eight-match drought, beating Casa Pia 3-2 at home in round 22. The visitors have lost eight of their 11 away games and lost all of their four away games against higher-ranked teams.
Famalicão vs Moreirense Prediction: Famalicão to Win or Draw
FC Porto are chasing the top two spots and cannot drop points: FC Porto vs Vitoria Guimaraes
- Date: 24/02/2025
- Kick Off: 20:15 UTC
- Third-placed FC Porto will host Vitoria Guimaraes, who are seventh with 31 points. FC Porto have won four of the last five H2H meetings.
FC Porto returned to winning ways after five rounds by beating Farense 1-0 on the road in round 22. The Dragons are undefeated at home in 11 games, winning nine and drawing two. Moreover, FC Porto have scored at least a goal in each of their 11 home games. Vitoria Guimaraes recorded their second consecutive goalless draw at home with Sporting Braga. The visitors have drawn seven of their last nine games in the league. Vitoria are winless in their last eight away matches.
