Liga Portugal 2024/25 Predictions: Gameweek 17

Sporting regained the top spot in the Liga Portugal table after beating Benfica in the crunch game of round 16. It’s a three-horse race for the title as FC Porto are second on goal difference while Benfica are following closely, being two points adrift.

The battle for fourth place and a European spot is also heating up after the fourth and fifth-placed teams, Braga and Santa Clara, lost, and Casa Pia closed the gap to five points after winning. At the bottom of the table, the competition to avoid relegation is between six teams, with just three points separating Arouca, the last, from Estoril, the 13th.

This week’s Liga Portugal gameweek 17 predictions were made based on current form, knowledge, and data. 

Liga Portugal 2024/25 Gameweek 17 Predictions: 03/01 - 06/01

FC Porto to maintain their winning momentum when they travel to Madeira: FC Porto vs Nacional

• Date: 03/01/2025
• Kick-Off: 18:00 UTC
• Can Nacional escape the relegation zone in a very difficult fixture? FC Porto are in top form at the moment.

Playing against the top four teams at home, Nacional have lost their three games this season. Moreover, the team from Madeira are witness in three games, drawing one and losing two. FC Porto, on the other hand, have won three consecutive games after beating Boavista 4-0 at home in the previous round. The Dragons have not conceded a goal in three games and have won all of their eight games when facing the bottom eight teams.

Nacional vs FC Porto Prediction: FC Porto to Win

Vitoria Guimaraes host Sporting in a match where the guests are favorites to avoid defeat: Vitoria Guimaraes vs Sporting

• Date: 03/01/2025
• Kick-Off: 20:15
• Sporting will look to maintain their position at the top, and nothing can accomplish that other than a win in Guimarães.

King of the 2-2 draws did it again as Vitoria Guimaraes drew 2-2 away at Farense in the previous round. That was the fifth time that Guimaraes’s game ended with a 2-2 score. Sporting were the biggest winners of round 16 after beating Benfica 1-0 in a very important match. The Lions are unbeaten in three games and managed to win six of their eight away games in the league this season. Sporting won in four of the last five H2H meetings.

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Sporting CP 03/01/2025: Sporting CP to Win

Moreirense are favorites to win as they host AVS, who are winless in 11 games: Moreirense vs AVS

• Date: 04/01/2025
• Kick-Off: 15:30 UTC
• Moreirense, who have 21 points and are challenging for a European spot, take on AVS with 14 points, struggling to stay in safety.

Moreirense salvaged a point in their last trip to Estoril after drawing 2-2 in a heated fixture. The hosts ended a two-match losing streak with that draw but remain winless in three games. AVS will be eager for at least a point, which they need desperately. However, AVS’s away form this season is not impressive, as they have no wins on the road. In addition, the visitors lost three of their six away games when facing teams ranked higher than them. 

Moreirense vs AVS Prediction 04/01/2025: Moreirense to Win

Benfica to bounce back against a strong Braga team: Benfica vs Braga

• Date: 04/01/2025
• Kick-Off: 18:00 UTC
• Two teams with 38 points meet in this crucial fixture, as Benfica are third on goal difference over fourth-placed Braga.

Benfica’s 14-match unbeaten run came to an end in the previous round after losing 1-0 to Sporting. As a result, the Eagles dropped to third place in the Liga Portugal standings. Benfica have won all of their eight matches at home in the league. Braga have lost in their last three trips to Benfica, conceding three or more goals in three of them. Moreover, the visitors have lost their two games against higher-ranked teams.

Benfica vs Braga Prediction 04/01/2025: Benfica to Win

Boavista and Arouca are to meet, having the two weakest attacks in the league. Boavista vs Arouca

• Date: 04/01/2025
• Kick-Off: 20:30 UTC
• In a low-scoring match, the two weakest teams at the bottom of the Liga Portugal table square off.

Boavista and Arouca have scored an average of 0.63 goals per game. Moreover, 75% of their games produced three or fewer goals. Boavista’s attack is at its weakest when playing at home, having scored in just 14% of their games at the Estadio de Besso. On the other hand, Arouca’s games produced 2.31 goals per game, and they failed to score more than one goal in any of their 16 games so far in the Liga Portugal.

Boavista vs Arouca Prediction 04/01/2025: Under 3 Goals

Santa Clara host Farense and are favorites to win: Santa Clara vs Farense

• Date: 05/01/2025
• Kick-Off: 15:30 UTC
• Santa Clara, with a perfect home record against lower-ranked teams, need a win to stay in contention for a European spot.

Playing at home at the Estadio de Sao Miguel, Santa Clara won six and lost two, with the two losses coming against higher-ranked teams. Thus, the hosts must not find it difficult to overcome Farense, who are 16th. Farense, on the other hand, have lost all of their four games against the top four teams in the league. Farense have been inconsistent in their last six matches, but on the positive side, they lost just one game in that period.

Santa Clara vs Farense Prediction 05/01/2025: Santa Clara to Win or Draw

In-form Casa Pia host Famalicão, who have no wins in two away games: Casa Pia vs Famalicão

• Date: 05/01/2025
• Kick-Off: 18:00 UTC
• Casa Pia enter this match as favorites considering their recent form. They have not lost at home in six games.

Casa Pia’s winning streak extended to three games after returning from Braga with a 2-1 away win in the previous round. The hosts are now five points behind a European spot, which they are eager to achieve. Famalicão have played three times on the road against higher-ranked teams. They drew twice and lost one. Casa Pia and Famalicão shared the wins in their four H2H meetings in the Liga Portugal. However, Casa Pia’s current form will allow them to avoid defeat in this game.

Casa Pia vs Famalicão Prediction 05/01/2025: Casa Pia to Win or Draw

Estrela and Estoril meet in a game with very little separating them: Estrela vs Estoril

• Date: 05/01/2025
• Kick-Off: 20:30 UTC
• Estrela, who are 12th with 16 points, host Estoril in the 13th position with 15 points in an evenly matched fixture.

Estrela are having a fine run when playing at their home, Estadio Jose Gomes, as they are undefeated in six games and won the last three. Moreover, the hosts covered the double chance at home against the bottom nine teams. Estoril, on the other hand, have no away wins, drawing three and losing four of their seven games. Estoril have won the two most recent H2Hs at home.

Estrela vs Estoril Prediction 05/01/2025: Estrela to Win or Draw

Gil Vicente and Rio Ave meet in a match with at least two goals expected: Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave

• Date: 06/01/2025
• Kick-Off: 20:15 UTC
• With both teams averaging just over one goal scored per game, a match with over 1.5 goals looks like a prospect.

Gil Vicente’s and Rio Ave’s last seven H2H meetings ended with two or more goals in all competitions. This season, Gil Vicente’s games produced an average of 2.69 goals per game, and Rio Ave’s, 2.75. Both teams have been scoring at high rates, the hosts with 69% and the visitors in 62% of their games. The goal stats show a 72% possibility for this match to produce over 1.5 goals.

Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave Prediction 06/01/2025: Over 1.5 Goals