Can You Make Money Betting Only on World Cup 2026 Favorites?
If betting on favorites really brought a stable profit, bookmakers would have gone bankrupt long ago. But in every World Cup, there are a large number of players who continue to compile accumulators from the victories of Brazil, Spain, Portugal, and other giants, considering such a strategy almost unbeatable.
Reality is much harsher. Favorites win often, but bookmakers pay so little for their victories that a few sensations are enough to send the bank into the red. We checked what would have happened to bets on favorites in the first round of the 2026 World Cup. The results show one unpleasant regularity: the most obvious betting strategy remains one of the most unprofitable for years.
In short: 13 hits. ROI -10%. Loss – 2,510 units.
Betting Conditions
Scores24 studied how the bank would have changed if you bet 1000 units on the favorite's victory in each game of the first round of the 2026 World Cup. We based our calculations on the average market odds that were relevant at the start of the match.
Results of the First Round of the 2026 World Cup
Match | Result | Did the Favorite Win? | Odds |
Mexico – South Africa | 2:0 | ✅ | 1.45 |
South Korea – Czech Republic | 2:1 | ✅ | 2.46 |
Canada – Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1:1 | ❌ | 1.80 |
USA – Paraguay | 4:1 | ✅ | 2.03 |
Qatar – Switzerland | 1:1 | ❌ | 1.20 |
Brazil – Morocco | 1:1 | ❌ | 1.68 |
Haiti – Scotland | 0:1 | ✅ | 1.62 |
Australia – Turkey | 2:0 | ❌ | 1.69 |
Germany – Curaçao | 7:1 | ✅ | 1.03 |
Netherlands – Japan | 2:2 | ❌ | 1.98 |
Côte d'Ivoire – Ecuador | 1:0 | ❌ | 2.64 |
Sweden – Tunisia | 5:1 | ✅ | 1.86 |
Spain – Cape Verde | 0:0 | ❌ | 1.07 |
Belgium – Egypt | 1:1 | ❌ | 1.54 |
Saudi Arabia – Uruguay | 1:1 | ❌ | 1.53 |
Iran – New Zealand | 2:2 | ❌ | 1.85 |
France – Senegal | 3:1 | ✅ | 1.53 |
Iraq – Norway | 1:4 | ✅ | 1.23 |
Argentina – Algeria | 3:0 | ✅ | 1.56 |
Austria – Jordan | 3:1 | ✅ | 1.42 |
Portugal – DR Congo | 1:1 | ❌ | 1.30 |
England – Croatia | 4:2 | ✅ | 1.66 |
Ghana – Panama | 1:0 | ✅ | 2.30 |
Uzbekistan – Colombia | 1:3 | ✅ | 1.34 |
How often did the favorites win in the first round
The first round of the current World Cup turned out to be more sensational than predictable. Only 13 times out of 24 matches played, the favorite was stronger (54%) – the worst indicator for the last four tournaments. Compare how often the favorites won in the first round at previous World Cups and what was the ROI:
- 2022 – 56% (ROI -13%)
- 2018 – 56% (ROI -5%)
- 2014 – 56% (ROI -4%)
- 2010 – 50% (ROI -24%)
Which bets brought the most profit
The most profitable were the victories of the favorites in the games South Korea vs Czech Republic, Ghana vs Panama, and USA vs Paraguay. The odds for the Koreans' win were 2.46, for the Ghanaians' victory – 2.30, for the Americans' success – 2.03. The successes of the German (1.03) and Norwegian (1.23) teams had almost no impact on the bank.
What happened to the bank
Historically, at the World Cups, bets exclusively on the favorites at odds without attempts to analyze and dissect the upcoming matches were always unprofitable. Let's look at the example of the first round of the 2026 World Cup, what would have happened to the bank if we had bet 1000 units on the favorite's victory in each game.
- total turnover – 24,000 USD
- number of successful bets – 13
- loss – 2,510 USD
- ROI -10.46%
And it's not even about analyzing "who let down more than others", but about the fact that underdogs upset at about the same level as before. Consistently in the first rounds of previous World Cups, the strategy was unprofitable. And even if, for example, Spain had not lost points to Cape Verde, Switzerland – to Qatar, and Portugal – to DR Congo, such a situation would not have significantly changed the bank. For some stable plus in the strategy of betting on the favorite at the World Cups, a success rate of at least 70% of games is necessary.
Conclusion: Should we continue betting on the favorite's victory?
The first round of the 2026 World Cup reminded us of a simple truth that many bettors prefer to ignore: frequent victories do not yet guarantee profit. Yes, the favorites have won more than half of the matches, but low odds have once again made this strategy vulnerable to any surprises. Betting on the favorites' victories can create an illusion of reliability, but in the long run, they regularly fall short of players' expectations. That's why in betting, it's not enough to just predict the winners – it's important to find odds that justify the risk.
Predictions for all matches of the 2026 World Championship can be found in the tournament section. Choose your bet on the game with caution.
FAQ
How many times did the favorites win in the first round of the 2026 World Championship?
13 times in 24 matches. The percentage of favorites' victories is 54%. This is the worst indicator in the last four tournaments.
Is it possible to make money by betting only on the favorites in the 2026 World Cup?
No, historically the opening rounds of recent tournaments – and 2026 is no exception – have ended with a negative ROI when using such a betting strategy.
