Betting Only on Draws in World Cup 2026: Profit or Loss?
Most bets on a draw end in a loss. Yes, but someone took a risk and played such outcomes over the past week. And the first round of the 2026 World Cup brought a surprise: a simple strategy without analyzing lineups, injuries, and statistics unexpectedly showed a result that many professional bettors would envy.
No complex models, forecasts, or value hunting. Just one market, a fixed bet on each match, and the real results of the first round of the 2026 World Cup. Let's see if such a strategy would bring profit or quickly send the bank into the red.
In short: 9 draws. ROI +103.96%. Profit – 24,950 USD.
Betting Conditions
Scores24 examined how the bank would have changed if you bet 1000 units on a draw outcome of each game of the first round of the 2026 World Cup. We based our calculations on the average market odds that were relevant at the start of the match.
Results of the first round of the 2026 World Cup
Match | Result | Did the draw play out? | Odds |
Mexico – South Africa | 2:0 | ❌ | 4.42 |
South Korea – Czech Republic | 2:1 | ❌ | 3.15 |
Canada – Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1:1 | ✅ | 3.57 |
USA – Paraguay | 4:1 | ❌ | 3.38 |
Qatar – Switzerland | 1:1 | ✅ | 7.61 |
Brazil – Morocco | 1:1 | ✅ | 3.87 |
Haiti – Scotland | 0:1 | ❌ | 4.41 |
Australia – Turkey | 2:0 | ❌ | 3.80 |
Germany – Curaçao | 7:1 | ❌ | 17.00 |
Netherlands – Japan | 2:2 | ✅ | 3.56 |
Côte d'Ivoire – Ecuador | 1:0 | ❌ | 2.98 |
Sweden – Tunisia | 5:1 | ❌ | 3.51 |
Spain – Cape Verde | 0:0 | ✅ | 13.00 |
Belgium – Egypt | 1:1 | ✅ | 4.31 |
Saudi Arabia – Uruguay | 1:1 | ✅ | 4.07 |
Iran – New Zealand | 2:2 | ✅ | 3.49 |
France – Senegal | 3:1 | ❌ | 4.59 |
Iraq – Norway | 1:4 | ❌ | 7.49 |
Argentina – Algeria | 3:0 | ❌ | 4.07 |
Austria – Jordan | 3:1 | ❌ | 4.84 |
Portugal – DR Congo | 1:1 | ✅ | 5.47 |
England – Croatia | 4:2 | ❌ | 3.96 |
Ghana – Panama | 1:0 | ❌ | 3.26 |
Uzbekistan – Colombia | 1:3 | ❌ | 5.35 |
At first glance, it doesn't seem remarkable. But it's the odds that turned the usual nine draws into a highly profitable series of bets.
How many draws were there in the first round
The first round of the current World Cup has yielded a significant number of draws – 9 out of 24 matches played (38%). This is a record figure for the 21st century. Compare the percentage of matches that ended in a draw in the first round of previous tournaments:
- 2022 – 25%
- 2018 – 19%
- 2014 – 13%
- 2010 – 38%
- 2006 – 19%
- 2002 – 25%
- 1998 – 31%
Which draws brought the most profit
The most sensational and profitable were the draws in the games Spain vs Cape Verde, Qatar vs Switzerland and Portugal vs DR Congo. These three draws, which had odds of 13.00, 7.61 and 5.47 respectively, would have covered all the costs for the first round and even made a profit. The correctly predicted draws in the games Belgium vs Egypt (4.31) and Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay (4.07) would have significantly increased the bank.
What happened to the bank
So, what would have happened to the bank if you bet 1000 units on each game of the first round?
- total turnover – 24,000 USD
- number of hits – 9
- profit – 24,950 USD
- ROI –103.96%
Despite only a portion of the bets being successful, the strategy would have yielded impressive results. With a total betting volume of 24,000 USD, the total winnings amounted to 48,950 USD, and the net profit – 24,950 USD. The ROI of the experiment – almost 104% – is an outstanding figure for a series of 24 bets.on one game segment.
Conclusion: Should we continue betting on draws?
The first round of the 2026 World Cup proved one simple thing: most players underestimate draws. Nine accurate hits would have brought almost 25 000 conditional units of profit and an ROI above 103%. Will such a result be repeated in the second round? Most likely, no. But it's such experiments that remind us that the most non-obvious markets often turn out to be the most profitable.
Fact at the end: only once in the last four tournaments has the percentage of draw results in the second round been higher than in the first.
Predictions for all matches of the 2026 World Cup can be found in the tournament section. Choose your bet on the game with caution.
FAQ
How many draws were there in the first round of the 2026 World Cup?
38% of the first round matches of the 2026 World Cup ended in a draw. No winner was determined in 9 games.
How much could you have won if you only bet on draws in the 2026 World Cup?
The ROI of such a strategy, based on the example of the first round, was almost 104%, which would have doubled the player's bankroll.
Which draw became the most sensational in the first round of the 2026 World Cup?
The most unpredictable was the draw between Spain and Cape Verde. The bookmakers offered odds of 13.00 for a draw.
