Favorites of the 2026 Winter Olympics — Medal Table Predictions
The unofficial Olympic medal tally can be viewed in various ways, but traditionally it is used to gauge the level of sports development in a particular country. Norway has won the Winter Olympics for the third consecutive time. Will anyone be able to dethrone them? This article provides an analysis of the favorites for the 2026 Olympics and a medal tally forecast from the Scores24 editorial team.
How many medals will be contested?
The 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan and Cortina d'Ampezzo (Italy) will take place from February 6 to 22. Athletes will compete for 116 sets of medals in 8 sports – seven more sets than four years earlier in Beijing.
Who will win the 2026 Olympics?
Traditionally, the list of top countries in the Winter Olympics is much smaller than in the Summer Games. In the 21st century, only six countries have made it into the top three in the medal tally: Norway, Germany, USA, Canada, Russia, and Austria. Below is a detailed list of the favorites.
Norway
The Scandinavian favorites traditionally bring home about a dozen gold medals from the Olympics – almost all in sports involving skiing. Success in biathlon, cross-country skiing, and Nordic combined has secured Norway the top spot in the medal tally for the last three competitions.
Results at the last Olympics
In 2022 in Beijing, Norway won 16 gold medals – a record in the history of the competition. The Norwegians unequivocally proved their status in biathlon (6 gold medals out of 11 contested), cross-country skiing (5 out of 12), and Nordic combined (2 out of 3), with one medal each in ski jumping, speed skating, and freestyle skiing.
The most significant contributions to the victory were made by biathletes Johannes and Tarjei Bø, Marte Olsbu Røiseland, skiers Therese Johaug and Johannes Klæbo, and Nordic combined athlete Jørgen Graabak.
Forecast for the 2026 Olympics
Without the Bø brothers and Olsbu Røiseland, the team will find it challenging to achieve great success in biathlon: currently, there are no Norwegians in the top three of the IBU world rankings for either men or women.
However, there is a sense that five gold medals in cross-country skiing were not the limit – Klæbo is still at the top among men, and Heidi Weng could medal among women. Let's not forget that three sets of medals will be contested in a new sport at this Olympics – ski mountaineering.
The Norwegian Olympic Committee has set a goal to bring about 35 medals of various kinds from Italy. Considering the biathlon decline, our editorial team's final forecast might not please the Norwegians: 13 gold medals and no new record.
Germany
For several years now, the main competitor to the Norwegians for victory in the medal tally. In 2022, the Germans were four gold medals behind the champions (12 compared to 16), while in 2018, the fate of the top position was decided by silver medals: both Norway and Germany won 14 gold medals, but the Germans had fewer silvers (10 compared to 14).
If the Norwegians are the kings on skis, then the Germans are the kings on sleds (and in...In 2026, the conditions seem favorable for Germany to win the medal tally for the first time in 20 years: the competition program has added women's doubles luge and mixed team events in skeleton.
Results at the Last Olympics
In Beijing, the Germans won 12 gold medals: four in luge, three in bobsleigh, two in skeleton, and one each in biathlon, cross-country skiing, and Nordic combined. However, in some minor details, the Germans fell short of the final step – Germany had the most silver medals (10).
Forecast for the 2026 Olympics
Considering the increase in the number of medal events in luge and bobsleigh, as well as the potential gold in women's ski mountaineering, Germany is capable of approaching their own record from Pyeongchang and taking home 13 gold medals from Milan.
Canada
The "Maple Leafs" are traditionally associated with success in hockey, but it's important not to forget that Canadians arrive at every Olympics as one of the favorites for the top-3 in the medal tally. The team is expected to win medals not only in hockey. After the setback in Beijing, returning to the top-10 seems to be the minimum goal.
Results at the Last Olympics
In 2022, Canadians unexpectedly found themselves in 11th place in the medal tally with 4 gold, 8 silver, and 14 bronze medals. In terms of total medals, the Canadians performed quite well – only Norway, Russia, and Germany did better.
In Beijing, Canada predictably won gold in women's hockey for the fifth time in 20 years and also excelled in team events in speed skating, short track, and snowboarding.
Forecast for the 2026 Olympics
If there were more than two sets of medals in hockey, the Canadians could contend for a spot among the top three teams in the medal tally. With maximum focus and a bit of luck on the ice hockey rinks and curling center, Canada is capable of collecting 7-8 gold medals. While this won't be enough for victory, it should suffice to return to the top five.
USA
The most consistent team of recent decades. Only American athletes have not dropped out of the top-5 in the medal tally since 1992 – although they have never won it either.
Results at the Last Olympics
In Beijing 2022, the Americans finished third in the medal tally. Interestingly, the USA team has won exactly 9 gold medals for five consecutive Olympics – now that's what we call consistency!
In the Chinese capital, the USA traditionally claimed high honors in snowboarding (3 golds), freestyle skiing, figure skating (2 each), bobsleigh, and speed skating (1 each). The USA had high hopes for figure skater Nathan Chen (who won twice) and Lindsey Jacobellis, who finally became an Olympic champion.
Forecast for the 2026 Olympics
The correct answer is again 9. We won't look for hidden pitfalls in our forecast: the consistency of American athletes speaks for itself. In freestyle skiing, there will now be more events...
compete for two more sets of awards (higher chances), and in figure skating, Ilia Malinin has taken Nathan Chen's place, who is also capable of becoming a two-time champion. However, this won't drastically change the picture in the medal standings – with 9 gold medals, the USA will once again finish third.
Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, South Korea, Italy
Not yet favorites, but no longer underdogs. Each of these countries can spring a surprise and will fight for a spot in the top five teams, or maybe even in the top three (as Austria managed in 2006).
The Netherlands will traditionally take home a handful of gold medals in speed skating (where there are, by the way, 14 sets of medals), Switzerland has the most formidable team in alpine skiing, Korea in short track, Sweden and Austria can pick up medals here and there and bam! – they're already in the top 5.
We can't leave out the Italians – the hosts traditionally marshal all their forces for the Games. In Turin 2006, Italy finished ninth, Canada won in Vancouver 2010, Russia came second in Sochi 2014, South Korea held onto seventh in Pyeongchang 2018, and China in 2022 came just a step away from the top 3.
Medal Standings Forecast for the 2026 Olympics
We've identified the top three from all of the above. For the first position, Norway and Germany will battle it out for the third consecutive competition – according to our forecast, they will each win 13 gold medals, but Norway will rank higher due to a greater number of silver medals. The American team rounds out the top 3 with 9 gold medals.
Finally, according to our editorial team's prediction, the top ten national teams in the world will include Canada, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, South Korea, and Italy.
Also read on our blog: more articles about the 2026 Winter Olympics
