IPL Favorites: Statistics, Odds, and Predictions

In the context of cricket betting, the favourite is the team that the bookmaker initially gives higher odds of winning. This is especially noticeable in the Indian Premier League: before each season and even before individual matches, a pool of teams with minimal odds is formed.

Who is considered the favourite in the IPL

A favourite is not just a "strong team", but a participant with the lowest odds in the line. This means that the market (bookmaker + players) rates their chances higher than their opponents.

Determining the favourite in betting

In the IPL, the favourites often tend to be:

• teams with a deep and strong line of batsmen,
• balanced bowler performance,
• consistent results in past seasons.

The role of odds

It is the odds that determine the status of the favourite. The lower the odds, the higher the assumed probability of winning.

For example:

• 1.70–1.80 → clear favourite
• 2.00–2.30 → even game
• 2.40+ → outsider

It is important to understand: odds are not the "truth", but an assessment of probability taking into account the bookmaker's margin and market behaviour. In the Premier League, popular teams often get underestimated quotes due to high betting volume.

The influence of team composition and form

Unlike many other leagues, in the IPL, the status of the favourite can quickly change during the season. A recent example: Mumbai Indians in early April after a series of failures were only the sixth team, now they are the fourth.

Even a team with a strong lineup can lose its status as a favourite after a few unsuccessful matches, especially in the dynamic T20 format.

Historical IPL favourites

As in any sport, a team that has won the national championship more than once can already be considered one of the favourites for the upcoming season regardless of current form and last season's performance.

Only three clubs have become Indian cricket champions more than once: Chennai Super Kings, Mumbai Indians (5 titles each), Kolkata Knight Riders (3 titles). Five other clubs have one victory in the Premier League. Among them is the current holder of the IPL trophy, Royal Challengers Bangalore.

IPL Club Performance Statistics

Clubs participating in the 2026 season are highlighted in bold.

Specifics of the IPL format

The Indian Premier League tournament is held in two stages. In the first one, each of the ten teams will play 14 matches (two games with each of the five opponents from the other group and one – with each of the four opponents from their own group).

Only four teams will make it to the second stage – and the top two in the playoffs will have the right to make a mistake. In the first round, the team that took 1st place will play against the team that came 2nd, and team No. 3 against team No. 4. The winner of the first match will directly make it to the final, the winner of the second – to the second round, where they will play with the loser of the first match.

This format implies not only a long-distance game, but also the peculiarities of the current form and games on the brink of elimination.

IPL favorites in the current season

According to preseason estimates and models, the most often mentioned favorites are:

• Mumbai Indians – one of the main contenders for the title thanks to the depth of the squad. However, the team is currently outside the playoff zone, although bookmakers still continue to rank the "Indians" among the top 4 favorites.
• Gujarat Titans – a team with a very balanced squad and a strong batsmen + bowlers combination.
• Royal Challengers Bangalore – the reigning champion, who significantly strengthened the bowlers' squad in the off-season.
• Punjab Kings – according to models and current form, they are among the top contenders. Last year, they were beaten twice by the future champion.
• Sunrisers Hyderabad and Rajasthan Royals – can be considered as favorites only with consistent performance.

IPL favorites' odds

Below is a table with odds* and chances of winning.

*Odds are approximate at the time of publication and may vary in different betting lines

Why favorites don't always win

Even with accurate odds, favorites in the Indian Premier League regularly lose. This is not a bookmaker's mistake, but a feature of the format and structure of the tournament. This is where value arises for betting – in the gap between "logic" and the reality of the match.

T20 format variance

The main factor is the high variance of T20. In a short format, a match can completely change in 1-2 overs due to a few 4/6 hits or a successful bowler's spell.

In simpler terms, even a team with a 60-65% chance of winning will quite often lose – and this is normal for the Twenty20 format and the Indian Premier League, not an anomaly.

Influence of the pitch and conditions

In the IPL, conditions often have no less impact than the class of the team. The state of the pitch, the possible dew factor in the second innings, which often takes place closer to evening time, humidity, and weather conditions.

In the endFavorites in the IPL don't lose "against logic", but because the logic in T20 works differently. It is this instability that creates room for value bets – if you read the context correctly, not just follow the odds.

Among the most recent sensations in the IPL – the victory of Delhi Capitals over Mumbai Indians (164/4 versus 162/6) and over Royal Challengers Bangalore (179/4 versus 175/8). In both cases, the probability of the "capital" team's victory was 40% (bookmakers offered odds of 2.48-2.51). In the second half of April, the last championship team, Kolkata Knight Riders, beat a top-3 team Rajasthan Royals (161/6 versus 155/9), although their probability of winning was estimated at 43%.

How to bet on IPL favorites

Betting on favorites is a basic strategy for many players, but it only works with the right approach. The IPL is no exception. A low odds alone does not guarantee profit, so it's important to understand when to enter the market and when to skip a match.

When to take the favorite

A bet on the favorite is justified if its advantage is confirmed not only by the odds, but also by the real game context:

• strong and stable lineup of batsmen,
• advantage in bowling attack in key phases of the match,
• field and weather conditions suitable for the team's style,
• current form, history of confrontation.

When to skip

There are situations where a bet on the favorite seems logical, but in the long run will be unprofitable:

• the odds are too low due to the team's popularity or their previous merits,
• unstable form or frequent changes in the lineup,
• difficult weather conditions or pitch conditions,
• high volatility of the match (equal teams, short format).

In India, the market often "overheats" top teams, and in such cases, value may not be on the favorite, but on the opposite side. We'll talk about this in the next section.

Strategy against favorites

Betting against favorites is one of the key approaches in Premier League betting. This is where value is most often formed, especially in matches where the market overestimates the strength of popular teams.

Value on underdogs

Let's clarify that an underdog is not necessarily a weak team, but a participant with higher odds. In the IPL, such teams regularly giveto the result:

• individual performances of players,
• favourable weather or field conditions,
• instability of the favourite.

If, according to your estimates, the probability of the underdog winning is higher than the odds suggest – this is a classic value situation.

Line Bias

One of the main reasons to bet against the favourites is line bias. In India, it arises due to:

• the popularity of the team's brand,
• a large number of bets on "known" clubs,
• media pressure on the market.

As a result, the odds on the favourite may be underestimated, and on the underdog – overestimated. This imbalance creates an opportunity for long-term profit. Above, we have already described how bookmakers underestimated the team from Delhi in games with the current national champion and the most titled team in India.

Risk vs Reward

The strategy against favourites is always associated with increased variance:

• more losses over a short distance,
• less frequent, but larger wins,
• high dependence on the accuracy of the estimate.

It is important to understand the risk/reward balance: even with a 40-45% hit rate of bets, you can stay in the black due to higher odds.

The Indian Premier League is a classic favourites market, where strong teams regularly make it to the playoffs and form the basis of the betting line. However, the status of a favourite itself does not guarantee a result, especially in the T20 format with high variance.

That's why the key advantage for a bettor is not choosing a "strong team", but the ability to analyse the lineup and form, take into account the conditions of the match and correctly read the line in search of value.

For predictions on all Indian Premier League matches, visit our special section where our editorial team analyses trends and offers IPL game betting options.

To delve deeper into cricket betting, we recommend paying attention to our other articles in the Articles section:

• Top IPL matches in the 2026 season
• Best tournaments for cricket betting
• Cricket betting strategies
• Cricket terms: a complete dictionary with explanations
• How to Read the Betting Line