2026 Mexico Grand Prix: Formula 1 Race Prediction
The Mexico City Grand Prix promises to be one of the most intriguing races of the closing stages of the Formula 1 season. One reason, at the very least, is that Kimi Andrea Antonelli is likely to become world champion at the high-altitude Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez.
Although Max Verstappen has lost his chance to defend his F1 title, he remains the leading contender to win the race, while Ferrari intends to continue its run of strong performances. Particular attention should be paid to Charles Leclerc, who is in excellent form and has an impressive record in Mexico.
2026 Formula 1 Mexico Grand Prix odds
| Driver | Race winner | Qualifying winner |
|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | 2.40 | 2.50 |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 2.50 | 3.20 |
| Charles Leclerc | 9.00 | 5.70 |
| Lewis Hamilton | 11 | 7.70 |
| Lando Norris | 13 | 15 |
| George Russell | 17 | 11 |
| Isack Hadjar | 20 | 20 |
| Oscar Piastri | 35 | 30 |
| Liam Lawson | 200 | 200 |
| Pierre Gasly | 250 | 200 |
| Arvid Lindblad | 300 | 300 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 350 | 350 |
| Nico Hülkenberg | 400 | 400 |
| Franco Colapinto | 450 | 450 |
| Oliver Bearman | 500 | 500 |
| Fernando Alonso | 500 | 550 |
| Esteban Ocon | 600 | 600 |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | 650 | 650 |
| Alexander Albon | 750 | 700 |
| Lance Stroll | 750 | 750 |
| Sergio Pérez | 900 | 900 |
| Valtteri Bottas | 900 | 900 |
Scores24 prediction for the Formula 1 Mexico Grand Prix
Charles Leclerc to finish in the top three — Yes
Odds: 2.10
Charles Leclerc heads into the Mexico City Grand Prix in excellent form. The Ferrari driver has finished second in two consecutive races, in Singapore and the United States, while upgrades to the SF-26 have helped the Italian team close the gap to the leaders. The Monegasque has a good chance of extending that run of strong results at the upcoming round.
Why Leclerc could finish on the podium
- Consistent results. Leclerc finished second at each of the previous two rounds and has qualified in the top six for 11 consecutive races. Ferrari has shown that it can be competitive both over a single fast qualifying lap and across a full race distance.
- Strong performances in Mexico. Leclerc has reached the podium at the last three Mexican Grands Prix: third place in 2023 and 2024, followed by second in 2025. He has also taken pole position here twice.
- Ferrari's progress. According to Motorsport.com technical expert Franco Núñez, the latest SF-26 upgrades demonstrated their effectiveness in Austin. The car's aerodynamic and cooling characteristics could potentially give the team an advantage in Mexico City's thin air.
- Confidence. After finishing second in Austin, Leclerc spoke positively about the recent upgrades and said that he now feels more confident behind the wheel.
The Monegasque's main rivals remain Max Verstappen and Kimi Antonelli. Bookmakers regard them as the top two contenders for victory. The Red Bull driver's chances are estimated at 42%, while the probability of another win for the Mercedes driver is 40%. The other drivers are assigned much smaller percentages.
In short, Antonelli only needs to finish in the top nine at the upcoming Grand Prix to become world champion. Russell and Hamilton, the other drivers still mathematically in contention, have virtually no chance of catching him.
The odds shown were available at the time of publication and may vary between bookmakers.
FAQ
When will Antonelli become Formula 1 world champion?
He will almost certainly do so at the Mexico City Grand Prix. To become F1 world champion, Antonelli only needs to finish the race in Mexico in the top nine. If he does, neither George Russell nor Lewis Hamilton will be able to catch him, even mathematically.
Who is the main favourite to win the 2026 Formula 1 Mexico Grand Prix?
Max Verstappen is the main favourite according to bookmakers' odds. The Red Bull driver's probability of winning is estimated at 42%. The second contender is Andrea Kimi Antonelli, with 40%.
Where can I find predictions and betting odds for the Formula 1 Mexico Grand Prix?
The odds are collected in the table at the beginning of the article. The reasoning behind the suggested bet is provided in the analysis below.
What bets are available for the Formula 1 Mexico Grand Prix?
Bookmakers offer bets on qualifying and race results, as well as comparisons between the performances of drivers from the same team.
