2026 FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup Outright Predictions: Tournament Winner Bets
The biggest event in women's basketball in 2026 is the FIBA World Cup in Germany. The tournament begins on September 4. In this article, we have collected outright predictions for the 2026 Women's Basketball World Cup, bookmaker odds and the most interesting bets on the tournament's main outcomes.
2026 Women's Basketball World Cup Group Stage Odds
Group A
Team | To win the group |
Spain | 1.75 |
Germany | 2.60 |
Japan | 7.00 |
Mali | 80 |
Group B
Team | To win the group |
France | 1.14 |
Nigeria | 5.50 |
Hungary | 26 |
South Korea | 50 |
Group C
Team | To win the group |
Belgium | 1.75 |
Australia | 2.15 |
Turkey | 15 |
Puerto Rico | 80 |
Group D
Team | To win the group |
USA | 1.01 |
China | 17 |
Italy | 23 |
Czech Republic | 50 |
Scores24 Outright Predictions for the FIBA Women's World Cup Group Stage
Spain to finish first in Group A
Odds: 1.75
Germany can certainly challenge for first place in this group, but the likely absence of the Sabally sisters could be a major blow for the hosts. Even strong support from the Berlin crowd may not be enough. Spain are the main favorites in the group based on several key factors:
- Quality and international ranking. Spain sit sixth in the FIBA world ranking, ahead of Japan (10th) and Germany (11th). Unlike the hosts, for whom the 2026 World Cup will be only the second World Cup in their history, Spain regularly compete for medals.
- Squad depth and balance. Spain have an excellent mix of experience and youth: veterans such as Alba Torrens and Marina Ortiz are complemented by young frontcourt talents from the WNBA and EuroLeague, including Iyana Martín and Awa Fam.
Last year, La Roja also came agonizingly close to winning the European title, losing the final to Belgium by just two points, 65:67.
Australia to finish first in Group C
Odds: 2.15
This is a somewhat riskier pick because bookmakers rate European champions Belgium as the favorites to win Group C. Belgium's game revolves heavily around superstar Emma Meesseman, while Australia arguably boast the strongest group of centers and forwards outside the USA. WNBA stars Ezi Magbegor, Alanna Smith and Steph Talbot give Australia tremendous strength around the basket. With a shorter rotation of big players, Belgium could find it extremely difficult to contain Australia on the boards and compete for rebounds.
There is also a psychological factor. In key games at major international tournaments, Australia have repeatedly found ways to beat Belgium. The Opals defeated Belgium in the bronze-medal game at the 2024 Olympics and had previously beaten them in the quarterfinals of the 2022 World Cup.
While Belgium have two or three world-class players, six members of Australia's roster play in the WNBA, including guards Sami Whitcomb and Jade Melbourne. This allows head coach Sandy Brondello to maintain a very high tempo and aggressive perimeter defense throughout all 40 minutes.
The winner of Group C may well be decided in the opening round when Belgium and Australia meet head-to-head. It is expected to be one of the most intriguing games of the World Cup group stage.
2026 Women's Basketball World Cup Winner Odds
Team | To become champion | Not to become champion |
USA | 1.25 | 3.90 |
Belgium | 10 | 1.03 |
France | 10 | 1.03 |
Australia | 15 | – |
China | 20 | – |
Germany | 25 | – |
Spain | 30 | – |
Italy | 50 | – |
Mali | 100 | – |
Turkey | 100 | – |
Puerto Rico | 100 | – |
Czech Republic | 100 | – |
South Korea | 100 | – |
Hungary | 100 | – |
Nigeria | 100 | – |
Japan | 100 | – |
Scores24 Outright Prediction for the 2026 Women's Basketball World Champion
The World Cup looks like a tournament with one overwhelming favorite: the USA. There is little appeal in backing the Americans at odds of 1.25 — there are few doubts about their chances, but the price is simply too short. Instead, we suggest looking at a more interesting option.
Tournament winner without the USA — France
Odds: 2.75
France are positioned as one of the leading candidates for the silver medal and potentially the team most capable of producing the tournament's biggest upset against the USA. Their status as the No. 2 contender is supported by several key factors:
- France gave the USA their toughest game in decades, losing the final of their home Olympics by just one point, 66:67. France showed that their conditioning, athleticism and defense can neutralize even a roster packed with WNBA stars. No other national team, including Australia and China, has come as close to dethroning the USA at a major tournament in recent years.
- France combine elite defense with unpredictable offense:
- Gabby Williams is one of the most versatile two-way forwards in the world. She can defend positions one through four, organize the offense and take responsibility for the opponent's leading players.
- Marine Johannès is a guard with phenomenal long-range shooting and exceptional passing. At any moment, she can take over a game with a run of made three-pointers.
- Unlike Australia or Spain, whose key players are gradually getting older, France are benefiting from an influx of young talent. Dominique Malonga and Janelle Salaün are already producing elite numbers in European competitions and for the national team. Guards such as Leïla Lacan provide pace and high-quality rotation options.
In effect, France have almost two equally strong lineups, allowing them to maintain very high intensity at both ends of the floor.
You can follow match results, the latest data and odds in the Women's FIBA World Cup 2026 section on our website.
