ATP Finals 2026: Outright Predictions and Betting Tips

From 15 to 22 November, Turin will host the ATP Finals 2026, bringing together the eight best players of the season. The main question is whether Carlos Alcaraz can carry his outstanding autumn form into the year's biggest season-ending event. The Spaniard arrives with back-to-back indoor hard-court titles, but Alexander Zverev, who has won two Grand Slam tournaments this season, has no intention of making things easy for him.

Ben Shelton and Daniil Medvedev are also ready to challenge, while four debutants will try to spring a surprise. We assess the contenders at the ATP Finals 2026 and pick out the best outright bets on the eventual champion.

Odds on the ATP Finals 2026 winner

Scores24 outright predictions for the ATP Finals 2026

Carlos Alcaraz to win the tournament — Yes

Odds: 1.85

Carlos Alcaraz is the clear favourite for the ATP Finals. This autumn he has won two consecutive indoor titles: the ATP 500 in Vienna and the ATP Masters 1000 in Paris. He is heading to the season-ending tournament for the fourth year in a row. Although he has yet to lift the trophy, he reached the semi-finals in 2023 and the final in 2025, so he certainly has plenty of experience. If you prefer shorter odds, a safer option is Alcaraz to reach the final at 1.42.

Ben Shelton to reach the semi-finals — Yes

Odds: 1.70

Here is an alternative pick. We expect Alexander Zverev to reach the semi-finals as well, but his price to finish among the final four is simply too short to be worth backing. The German ended his season disappointingly with an early exit at the Paris Masters, although he had previously reached the semi-finals of the ATP 500 in Vienna. Having won two Grand Slam titles this season, he is particularly focused on the biggest events.

Ben Shelton is almost level with Zverev among the contenders, although the American has much less ATP Finals experience. This is his second consecutive appearance, and he ended the 2025 tournament with a 0-3 record. His preparation for Turin was impressive: he reached the final in Paris, where he lost a hard-fought match to Alcaraz, 6-7, 5-7. During the season, Shelton achieved a career-high ranking inside the top four and showed he can succeed on different surfaces, winning four titles across outdoor hard courts, clay and grass. An indoor title is the only one missing.

Daniil Medvedev is the dark horse and one of only two former ATP Finals champions in this year's field, having won the title in 2020. He started the indoor swing well, lifting the ATP 250 trophy in Almaty and reaching the semi-finals at the ATP 500 in Vienna, but struggled in Paris. He publicly admitted that he no longer wanted to play this season, but would have to. Such remarks are familiar from Daniil, though they hardly improve his prospects. His autumn schedule, including the Asian outdoor hard-court swing, has also been the busiest of any ATP Finals entrant.

The remaining players are tournament debutants and have done little to stand out indoors this autumn. Frances Tiafoe, who is 0-2 on indoor courts this autumn, and Flavio Cobolli, who suffered an injury ahead of Paris but retained his top-eight place in the Race, are clear outsiders. Arthur Fils looks the strongest of this group: he reached the semi-finals of the ATP 250 in Lyon and the quarter-finals of the ATP 500 in Basel, while also setting a career-high ranking inside the top seven this season.

You can follow match results, the latest information and odds in the ATP Finals section of our website.