Betting on the 2026 World Cup Group Stage Exit: Group Predictions and Odds

France and Italy in 2010, Spain, England, and Portugal in 2014, Germany in 2018 and 2022. All these teams were clear favorites to advance from the group stage at the recent World Cups. However, they blatantly failed and didn't make it to the playoffs. None of the last four tournaments went without surprises at the earliest stage.

The only reason why this trend may break in 2026 is the expansion of the number of participants, which now allows even the third-place team to make it to the playoffs. This practically eliminates the fiasco of top teams, who only need to thrash an underdog like Curaçao, Cape Verde, or Haiti to advance to the knockout stage.

In this article, we will analyze all the groups of the 2026 World Cup, assess the chances of the teams to advance to the next round, and consider the most interesting bets for the group stage of the World Cup.

Odds for advancing from the group stage of the 2026 World Cup

Briefly about the format: two best teams from each of the 12 groups will definitely advance to the 1/16 finals of the World Cup, as well as the eight best teams that finish third in their group. The main seeding indicator is points, then goal difference, then the number of goals scored.

The odds are approximate, may vary in different bookmakers, and are current at the time of publication

Group A

Prediction: There is no doubt about Mexico advancing from the group – the team has made it to the top-2 even from more challenging groups. The main battle for the second place will unfold between the Czech Republic and South Korea. We give preference to South Korea with odds of 1.93. However, the Czech Republic may miss out on the playoffs due to goal difference.

Group B

Prediction: The most boring group with teams that know how to play to the score. Let's assume that Switzerland will be the first with odds of 1.70 even in the event of a draw against the Canadians, but with a better goal difference. In the last five tournaments, the Swiss have ended the group stage with a zero or positive goal difference. The second place in the playoffs will go to Canada, the third – to Bosnia and Herzegovina, which in the last round will be pushed back from the task of scoring as many goals as possible to Qatar. The Bosnians will go to the playoffs from the third place for 1.45.

Group C

Prediction: No doubts about Brazil and Morocco advancing to the playoffs. But bookmakers suggest that Scotland will put up a decent resistance. In 1998, the Scots already played against Brazil (1:2) and Morocco (0:3). It seems that a roughly similar scenario awaits us now. An additional difficulty – Scotland starts the tournament against Haiti – the opponent will still be quite fresh, understanding that the game with the Celts is their only chance to score points. The choice for Group C – Scotland will not take 1-2 place with a coefficient of 1.45.

Group D

Prediction: This is the most unpredictable group, where even the underdog is hard to call an underdog. Australia has never ended the group stage with a positive difference in the last five World Cups, but has twice made it to the playoffs. Let's assume that one of the playoff spots from this quartet will be taken by the USA team, although even aiming for a top-2 spot would be a big risk. But the main prediction is – Paraguay will advance from the group for 1.50. The team has a capable defense for the quartet, a couple of talents in the form of Enciso and Almiron, as well as statistics – Paraguay has played in three World Cups in the 21st century and has always scored at least three points. This may be enough to advance from the group in 2026. The blend of experience and youth in the Turkish team will allow them to make it to the playoffs. It's just unclear who will advance from which position.

Group E

Prediction: An interesting group, where due to the presence of Curacao, bookmakers are almost certain of the advancement of three teams. We agree with the odds – a positive goal difference will allow both Germany, Ecuador, and Ivory Coast to advance to the 1/16 finals. But we will play the option of Ivory Coast advancing to the playoffs from 1-2 places for 2.07. The Africans will be finishing the group stage with a game against Curacao and ifThe team may need to understand how many goals they need to score, as they are almost certain to lose a lot of energy playing defensively in the previous two matches. The Ivorians are bringing a very strong squad to North America, which has been scoring in eight consecutive games. But Ecuador should not despair – they should make it to the playoffs as one of the best third-placed teams.

Group F

Prediction: There is no doubt that the Netherlands will progress from the group. However, betting on their first place considering the strong play of the Japanese, the talented attack of Sweden, and unpredictable Tunisia would be a huge risk. We suggest betting on Japan's progression to the playoffs from 1-2 place at 1.62. In three of the last four tournaments, the Asians have taken 1-2 place in the group even with stronger opponents than today. The clash between Sweden and Tunisia could turn into a failure for both and leave them out of the playoffs.

Group G

Prediction: Belgium is expected to progress from this group, so we are not even considering such options. However, Iran is evidently underestimated by bookmakers, offering 1.50 for advancing from the group stage. Although the Asian team is capable of challenging both the Belgians and the Egyptians. The emotional state of the players can affect both positively and negatively, but four points in three matches should be enough for a strong Iran to make it to the playoffs. Egypt will also make it there, while New Zealand will be left with nothing.

Group H

Prediction: Against the serious attack and flanks of Spain and Uruguay, the teams from Africa and Asia can do nothing. The goal difference in this quartet may come to the fore. There are no questions about the first two positions – they are reserved for Spain and Uruguay. As for Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde, they will compete with each other, but the most likely outcome is either a draw or a victory of one of the teams with a minimal advantage. Although both will surely only be satisfied with a rout in the last round. The prediction is that Saudi Arabia will not advance from the group for 1.90. A slightly safer option is Cape Verde not advancing from the group for 1.42.

Group I

Prediction: Bookmakers are clearly overestimating Norway, which in the 21st century has not played in either the World Cup or the Euros. At the same time, they are underestimating Senegal, which in the current cycle has defeated Brazil, England, and Egypt. The Senegalese are not just capable of springing a surprise – after the controversial Africa Cup final, they are obliged to make it to the playoffs. The prediction is Senegal's is going up group stage at 1.50. We expect France and Norway in the playoffs as well.

Group J

Prediction: In this quartet, bookmakers are clearly overestimating the abilities of the Austrians, believing that they must advance from the group. However, firstly, Algeria has regular practice at major tournaments, including matches against top African teams, and Jordan does not look like a team of the level of Haiti or Curaçao. They will definitely put up a fight, as they have already done against South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. Austria has not played against teams above the level of Serbia or Norway for the last two years. The main prediction for the group – Austria will not advance to the playoffs from 1-2 places for 2.35. We will not even suggest you risk advancing from the group, but we will keep in mind that only Argentina and Algeria will represent Group J in the playoffs.

Group K

Forecast: There is no doubt that Portugal and Colombia will advance to the playoffs. Interestingly, their head-to-head match will not only be a game for the first place, but also for an easy draw without top teams up to the quarterfinals. Given this scenario, the star-studded and experienced Portuguese team must play responsibly and by score to take 1st place in the group with odds of 1.55. Let's assume that the third position will go to Uzbekistan – the team confidently passed the qualification, and Asian teams traditionally can make a loud statement about themselves at the World Cup. We should not exclude that the Uzbeks will even advance to the playoffs thanks to a zero or positive goal difference.

Group L

Forecast: England, even without a number of leaders, should at least make it to the playoffs, and at most - from the first place. There is no doubt about Croatia's progress, although by the end of the group stage, age and pace of play may play a cruel joke. Bookmakers underestimate Ghana, which is surprising: for Panama, a big loss is not uncommon (over the last two years, the Panamanians lost to Brazil 2:6, Colombia 0:5, Chile 1:6 and Mexico 0:3). A zero or even minimal positive goal difference with three points can lead the Africans to the playoffs from the third place. The forecast is that Ghana will advance from the group with odds of 1.52.

How to bet on the results of the group stage

Study the schedule

It's important to look not only at the odds and the name of the team, but also at the team's schedule. It's not uncommon for leaders to play each other in the third round - and one of them will be quite satisfied with a draw. For example: Spain will play Uruguay in the final match – the European team may be ahead of the opponent in goal difference and it will not make sense to strive for victory at all costs. The opposite situation: Côte d'Ivoire has toto conclude the group stage with a match against Curaçao. There is a possibility that the Africans will understand – a victory with a difference of 3-4 goals will put them in second place.

Don't overestimate the favorites

Even a top team can lose points if they face difficult opponents. Bookmakers offer 1.01-1.02 for almost all favorites to advance from the group and a coefficient of 1.20-1.30 for first place. The risk is not worth such coefficients if you have doubts.

Look for undervalued second places in groups

The greatest value usually lies not in betting on the group's favorites, but in the fight for the second direct ticket to the playoffs. Bookmakers overestimate the status of well-known teams and underestimate teams with good game organization, which are capable of consistently scoring points against opponents of their level.

Use long-term bets before the start of the tournament

After the first round, the coefficients change sharply, so the best opportunities often appear even before the start of the World Cup. If you see a team with a favorable draw, strong form and experienced lineup, it makes sense to consider a bet on their advancement from the group in advance, while the market has not fully taken into account all the factors.

Mistakes players make when betting on the group stage

Believing in coefficients of 1.01

Yes, there is almost no doubt about Spain, France or Brazil advancing from the group. But history shows that at least one top team in each of the last four World Cups has missed out on the playoffs. Be careful - the risk of choosing such coefficients is more serious than the potential win.

Not understanding the layouts in the fight for third place

Due to the new format with 48 participants, the World Cup now implies advancing to the playoffs even from third place. Almost certainly, all teams with three points and a good positive goal difference will make it to the playoffs. It's important to take this into account and pay attention to productivity and defensive play. We do not rule out situations where a couple of teams with three points and a zero difference will advance to the 1/16 finals.

Relaying solely on the results of friendly matches

Avoid analyzing the outcomes of friendly matches. Yes, Ecuador brilliantly passed the qualification and is approaching the tournament with a streak of 18 matches without defeat. But this is not a reason to blindly give it 1-2 places in the group. Surprises at the World Cup are not uncommon. It's important to study the schedule, their style of play, the style of play of opponents, the form of leaders, and a number of other factors.

More predictions for all matches of the 2026 World Cup will be available in the tournament section from June 9.